Commodities

Agricultural Commodities Rise, While Energy And Precious Metals Sag

Demand for thermal coal is outpacing supply, leading to much higher prices, as financing new mines becomes difficult

Published ET

Newcastle Coal Front-Month Future Prices Have Now Doubled This Year | Source: Refinitiv

Newcastle Coal Front-Month Future Prices Have Now Doubled This Year | Source: Refinitiv


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HEADLINES & MACRO

  • Baker Hughes N. American rig count +6 to 647 (+353 y/y)
  • US rig count +3 to 491 (+244 y/y)
  • Oil rigs +2 to 387 (+211 y/y), gas unchanged at 103 in latest week (+34 y/y)

NOTABLE GAINERS TODAY

  • SMM Rare Earth Yttrium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 23.2% (YTD: 107.3%)
  • CME Random Length Lumber up 5.5% (YTD: -36.8%)
  • SMM Rare Earth Yttrium Metal Spot Price Daily up 4.4% (YTD: 14.6%)
  • SMM Tungsten Carbide-99.7% FB Spot Price Daily up 2.6% (YTD: 25.4%)
  • SMM Erbium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 2.5% (YTD: 24.3%)
  • ICE Europe Newcastle Coal Monthly up 2.4% (YTD: 99.9%)
  • Gold/US Dollar 1 Month ATM Option IV up 1.9% (YTD: -21.1%)
  • SHFE Bitumen Continuation Month 1 up 1.8% (YTD: 35.1%)
  • SHFE Zinc up 1.7% (YTD: 7.7%)

NOTABLE LOSERS TODAY

  • Freightos Baltic China/East Asia To North America West Coast 40 Container Index down -17.7% (YTD: 276.9%)
  • DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 down -7.8% (YTD: 36.0%)
  • Freightos Baltic Global Index down -7.3% (YTD: 189.3%)
  • Freightos Baltic China/East Asia To North America East Coast 40 Container Index down -4.0% (YTD: 269.3%)
  • Shanghai International Exchange Bonded Copper down -3.8% (YTD: 17.2%)
  • Silver spot down -3.2% (YTD: -7.7%)
  • Freightos Baltic North America East Coast To Europe 40 Container Index down -2.7% (YTD: 79.6%)
  • Platinum spot down -2.5% (YTD: -8.3%)
  • SMM Rare Earth Gadolinium Oxide Spot Price Daily down -2.4% (YTD: 46.6%)
  • Gold spot down -2.3% (YTD: -7.1%)
  • Johnson Matthey Iridium New York 0930 down -1.9% (YTD: 103.8%)
  • Pork Primal Cutout Butt down -1.8% (YTD: 65.9%)

NET POSITIONS OF MANAGED MONEY (WEEKLY CFTC REPORT)

ENERGY

  • Light Sweet Crude reduced net long position
  • Ice Brent reduced net long position
  • Gasoline RBOB increased net long position
  • No.2 Heating Oil increased net long position
  • Ice Gasoil increased net long position
  • Henry Hub Ice reduced net long position

Brent Crude Oil Net Positioning | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

METALS

  • Gold increased net long position
  • Silver increased net long position
  • Platinum turned to net short
  • Palladium reduced net long position
  • Copper-Grade#1 reduced net long position

AGRICULTURE

  • Wheat increased net long position
  • Corn increased net long position
  • Rough Rice reduced net short position
  • Oats increased net long position
  • Soybeans reduced net long position
  • Soybean Oil increased net long position
  • Soybean Meal reduced net long position
  • Lean Hogs increased net long position
  • Live Cattle increased net long position
  • Feeder Cattle increased net long position
  • Cocoa reduced net short position
  • Coffee C increased net long position
  • Robusta Coffee reduced net long position
  • Frozen Orange Juice reduced net long position
  • Sugar No.11 increased net long position
  • White Sugar reduced net long position
GSCI Sub-Indices Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataGSCI Equal Weight Total Return Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

ENERGY FALLS TODAY

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 68.28 per barrel, down -1.2% (YTD: +40.7%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 70.70 per barrel, down -0.8% (YTD: +36.5%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Brent volatility at 34.5, up 6.6% (12-month range: 24.7 - 57.6)
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 160.95 per tonne, up 2.4% (YTD: +99.9%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) unchanged at US$ 4.14 per MMBtu (YTD: +63.1%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.26 per gallon, down -1.6% (YTD: +60.2%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 580.25 per tonne, down -0.8% (YTD: +37.9%)
GSCI Energy Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataCrude Oil 1-Month ATM IVs | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS DROP TODAY

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.34 per pound, down 0.0% (YTD: +23.7%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 1,135.00 per tonne, down 0.0% (YTD: +5.2%)
  • Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 19,840 per tonne, up 0.9% (YTD: +26.9%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 143,450 per tonne, up 1.2% (YTD: +17.2%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,415 per tonne, down -0.1% (YTD: +6.7%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 5,390 per tonne, down -1.2% (YTD: +27.7%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 233,350 per tonne, up 0.0% (YTD: +54.3%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,325 per tonne, up 1.7% (YTD: +7.7%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 374,500 per tonne, down -0.7% (YTD: +36.7%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 620,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +27.8%)
GSCI Base Metals Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

PRECIOUS METALS DOWN BIG TODAY

  • Gold spot currently at US$ 1,763.34 per troy ounce, down -2.3% (YTD: -7.1%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.28, up 1.9% (YTD: -21.1%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 24.33 per troy ounce, down -3.2% (YTD: -7.7%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 21.94, down -0.7% (YTD: -46.0%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,627.34 per troy ounce, down -0.9% (YTD: +7.4%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 979.90 per troy ounce, down -2.5% (YTD: -8.3%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 19,000 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +11.4%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 5,300 per troy ounce, down -1.9% (YTD: +103.8%)
GSCI Precious Metals Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataGold, Silver 1-Month ATM IVs | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGS MOSTLY UP TODAY

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 123.00 cents per pound, up 0.3% (YTD: +8.9%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 108.75 cents per pound, down -0.7% (YTD: +54.7%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.32 cents per hundredweight, up 0.3% (YTD: +7.4%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,422.25 cents per bushel, up 1.4% (YTD: +8.1%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 555.00 cents per bushel, down -0.1% (YTD: +14.7%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 719.00 cents per bushel, up 0.9% (YTD: +12.3%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 18.65 cents per pound, up 0.3% (YTD: +20.6%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 92.44 cents per pound, up 1.4% (YTD: +18.3%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,423 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: -7.1%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 4,272 per tonne, up 1.2% (YTD: +35.0%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 551.60 per 1,000 board feet, up 5.5% (YTD: -36.8%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,205 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +9.3%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 63.41 cents per pound, up 1.5% (YTD: +46.3%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,520 per tonne, down -0.1% (YTD: +16.2%)
GSCI Agriculture Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataAGS 1-Month ATM IVs | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING TODAY

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 3,376, up 1.7% (YTD: +147.1%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 15,827, down -17.7% (YTD: +276.9%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,128, unchanged (YTD: +117.9%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 652, down -2.7% (YTD: +79.6%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 6,031, unchanged (YTD: +222.7%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 13,896, up 0.4% (YTD: +145.4%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,644, unchanged (YTD: +19.5%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 4,621, unchanged (YTD: +173.2%)
Freightos Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataBaltic Dry Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 56.66 per tonne, up 1.2% (YTD: +73.2%)

CO2 Permits Prices EUA | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data