FX

US Dollar Inches Down Despite Higher Rates

Decent macro data in Europe and Japan, while Chinese April retail sales, industrial output growth decelerated from March

Published ET

Israeli Shekel 1-Month Implied Volatility | Source: Refinitiv

Israeli Shekel 1-Month Implied Volatility | Source: Refinitiv


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QUICK SUMMARY

  • The US Dollar Index is down -0.2% at 90.2
  • Euro up 0.1% at 1.2151 (YTD: -0.5%)
  • Yen up 0.1% at 109.19 (YTD: -5.4%)
  • Onshore Yuan unchanged at 6.4388 (YTD: +1.4%)
  • Swiss franc down 0.2% at 0.9032 (YTD: -2.0%)
  • Sterling up 0.3% at 1.4134 (YTD: +3.4%)
  • Canadian dollar up 0.3% at 1.2066 (YTD: +5.5%)
  • Australian dollar down 0.1% at 0.7763 (YTD: +0.9%)
  • NZ dollar down 0.7% at 0.7200 (YTD: +0.2%)

MACRO DATA RELEASES

  • Canada, Housing Starts, All areas for Apr 2021 (CMHC, Canada) at 268.60, below consensus estimate of 280.0
  • China (Mainland), Investment in Fixed Assets, Urban, Change Y/Y for Apr 2021 (NBS, China) at 19.90, above consensus estimate of 19.0
  • China (Mainland), Retail Sales, Consumer goods, Change Y/Y for Apr 2021 (NBS, China) at 17.70, below consensus estimate of 24.9
  • Euro Zone, Financial Account, Assets, Official reserve assets, all currencies except national currency, Current Prices for Apr 2021 (ECB) at 852.14
  • Finland, Official reserve assets, Current Prices for Apr 2021 (Bank of Finland) at 11,408.00
  • India, Wholesale Prices, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Apr 2021 (Econ Adviser, India) at 10.49, above consensus estimate of 9.1
  • Italy, HICP, Final, Change P/P, Price Index for Apr 2021 (ISTAT, Italy) at 0.90, in line
  • Italy, HICP, Final, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Apr 2021 (ISTAT, Italy) at 1.00, in line
  • Japan, Exports, Goods and Services, Net, contributions to changes, 1st prelim, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (Cabinet Office, JP) at -0.20, in line
  • Japan, Final Consumption Expenditure, Private, Total, 1st prelim, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (Cabinet Office, JP) at -1.40, above consensus estimate of -2.0
  • Japan, GDP, Total, 1st prelim, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (Cabinet Office, JP) at -5.10, below consensus estimate of -4.6
  • Japan, GDP, Total, 1st prelim, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (Cabinet Office, JP) at -1.30, below consensus estimate of -1.2
  • Japan, GFCF, Non-residential investment, 1st prelim, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (Cabinet Office, JP) at -1.40, below consensus estimate of 1.1
  • Russia, GDP, Total-prelim, Change Y/Y for Q1 2021 (RosStat, Russia) at -1.00
  • Thailand, GDP, Change Y/Y for Q1 2021 (NESDB, Thailand) at -2.60, above consensus estimate of -3.3
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

RATES SPREADS

  • 5Y German-US interest rates spread 1.0 bp wider, positive for the dollar
  • 5Y Japan-US rates spread 1.8 bp wider, positive for the dollar
  • 5Y Chinese-US rates spread 0.5 bp tighter, positive for the dollar
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

VOLATILITIES

  • Deutsche Bank USD Currency Volatility Index currently at 6.34, down -0.13 on the day (YTD: -0.95)
  • Euro 1-Month At-The-Money Implied Volatility currently at 5.65, up 0.1 on the day (YTD: -1.3)
  • Japanese Yen 1M ATM IV currently at 5.53, up 0.3 on the day (YTD: -0.6)
  • Offshore Yuan 1M ATM IV currently at 3.85, unchanged (YTD: -1.8)
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE MOVES IN SOVEREIGN CDS

  • Government of Chile (rated A-): up 7.0 basis points to 59 bp (1Y range: 43-105bp)
  • Spain (rated A-): up 1.6 basis points to 37 bp (1Y range: 29-105bp)
  • Peru (rated BBB+): up 1.5 basis points to 81 bp (1Y range: 52-103bp)
  • Philippines (rated BBB): down 0.6 basis points to 46 bp (1Y range: 33-81bp)
  • Malaysia (rated BBB+): down 0.7 basis points to 46 bp (1Y range: 33-105bp)
  • Indonesia (rated BBB): down 0.9 basis points to 76 bp (1Y range: 66-190bp)
  • State of Qatar (rated AA-): down 1.0 basis points to 42 bp (1Y range: 33-98bp)
  • Russia (rated BBB): down 2.4 basis points to 90 bp (1Y range: 72-131bp)
  • Thailand (rated BBB+): down 2.8 basis points to 39 bp (1Y range: 33-57bp)
  • South Africa (rated BB-): down 3.2 basis points to 198 bp (1Y range: 197-372bp)
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE OTHER MOVERS TODAY

  • Venezuela Bolivar up 3.0% (YTD: -62.2%)
  • Turkish Lira up 1.9% (YTD: -10.5%)
  • Jamaican Dollar up 1.7% (YTD: -4.7%)
  • Hungarian Forint up 1.1% (YTD: +2.7%)
  • Samoa Tala down 1.0% (YTD: -0.1%)
  • Haiti Gourde down 1.1% (YTD: -19.7%)
  • Chilean Peso down 2.2% (YTD: -0.7%)
  • Afghani down 2.5% (YTD: -2.9%)
  • CFA Franc BEAC down 3.4% (YTD: -1.5%)
  • Seychelles rupee down 5.9% (YTD: +26.5%)