Broad Fall Across The Commodities Complex, With All GSCI Sub-Indices Ending The Week In Red

Most of the big recent gainers (crude oil, nickel, wheat, etc.) had a decent selloff and the skew in their implied volatilities dropped back to less extreme levels

Wheat 1-Month 10-Delta Call Implied Volatility | Source: Refinitiv


Most Commodity Groups Fell This Week, With The Exception Of Livestock; The GSCI Energy Was Down Over 7%

As the war in Ukraine continues, fertilizers spot prices keep rising: the Urea New Orleans FOB Index is now up nearly 70% since the middle of February

Direct Hedge Urea New Orleans FOB Index | Source: Refinitiv


Commodities That Gained The Most In The Early Days Of The Ukrainian Invasion Saw A Reversal This Week, With TTF Nat Gas Down 35% And Wheat Down 19%

Despite an amazing run over the past year, commodities still terrible longer-term performance, with base metals and precious metals the only groups having had positive total returns over the last 10 years

S&P GSCI Sub Indices Total Returns Over The Past 10 Years (Rebased to 100) | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Crazy Week In Commodities, With The S&P GSCI Equal-Weighted Index Up 17%, Led By Energy And Agriculture

Uncertainty around Russian supplies saw the prices of European energy benchmarks jump this week: Newcastle Coal up 75%, TTF natural gas up 125%, Brent Forties up 25%

TTF Natural Gas vs Newcastle Coal Prices | Source: Refinitiv


Energy Was The Big Story Again This Week In Commodities, With Brent Spot Above $90 And Nat Gas Up 16%

The failure of many countries OPEC+ to meet their quotas, combined with the slow / patient approach of shale producers is driving backwardation to levels where the back end of the curve will have to start catching up ($25/bbl spread between spot Brent Sullom Voe and December 2025 future)

Brent Crude Spot Price And December 2024 Calendar Spread | Source: Refinitiv


Good Week Across The Commodities Complex, With All S&P GSCI Indices Moving Higher

Industrial metals are rising on the back of the loosening monetary policy in China, with nickel futures in Shanghai up nearly 9% this week and lithium up 16%

Brent December 2025 Future Prices Are Nearly $22 / bbl Cheaper Than Brent Spot Prices | Source: Refinitiv


Looking At GSCI Sub-Indices, Energy Is Off To A Great Start This Year, Led By Natural Gas And Heating Oil

Among macro trends, shipping has seen a continued slide since the beginning of the year (Baltic dry index down 20% YTD and down 69% since October), while EV-related base metals have done really well (Lithium up 20% and Nickel up 10% YTD)

S&P GSCI Energy Year-To-Date Performance By Sub-Indices | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet


Good Week For Commodities, Led By Energy, With A Significant Rebound In The Prices Of Crude Oil And Gasoline

Carbon allowances have been some of the most profitable longs this year, with European CO2 permits having almost tripled in 2021 (EEX front month up 161% year to date)

Performance Of The S&P GSCI Equal Weight Total Return Index | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data


Terrible Week For Major Commodities, With Large Losses Throughout The Complex

Crude oil and natural gas prices were mostly driven by Putin's efforts to gain acceptance for Nord Stream 2: he favored increasing OPEC+ supply further to please Washington, though the group left the meeting unadjourned with no changes to their existing agreement

Wuxi Cobalt Front-Month Futures Prices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Crude Oil Fell This Week As European Countries Locked Down Again, While Natural Gas Gained As Russia Is Pressured On Ukraine, Nord Stream 2

After a poor start this week, base metals ended pretty strong as positive news came out of the Chinese property sector, with rules on land sales being eased and real estate developers regaining market confidence after capital raises

S&P GSCI Sub-Indices Year-To-Date Total Returns | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data


Good Week For Precious And Industrial Metals, Helped By Inflationary Pressures And A Rebound In Chinese Real Estate

The big losers this week were natural gas, thermal coal, coke, and iron ore, as energy supply worries disappear and the market is now concerned with weaker Chinese demand growth in 2022

ICE Front-Month Coffee C Future Prices At Seven-Year High Up, Now Up 75% YTD | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Industrials Commodities Fell This Week On Unimpressive Economic Growth, Dip In Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Crude oil started the week much lower ahead of the November OPEC+ meeting and rose into the weekend, as the cartel pointed to lower demand in 2022 to keep its current monthly increases unchanged

Copper Weekly Front-Month Futures Prices vs. US 10Y TIPS Inflation Breakeven | Source: Refinitiv


Not A Great Week For Commodities, With The Main Losers Being Thermal Coal (Chinese Government Actions) And Base Metals (Weaker Than Expected Macro Data)

The current level of backwardation in Brent oil prices is one that has historically led to a reversion, usually through the physical market / front-month futures prices coming down

Brent Crude Oil Front-Month Futures Prices & Calendar Spread 1m-7m | Source: Refinitiv


Mixed Week For Commodities, With Ags And Energy Rising While Base Metals Fell

Despite the phenomenal run some commodities have been on in the past year, the long-term (10-year) total return of commodities has been terrible on an absolute basis, and even worse on a risk-adjusted basis

Comparison Of The 10-Year Total Returns Of S&P GSCI Sub Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Broad Commodities Strength This Week, Led By Base Metals And Energy

Industrial metals, including platinum-group elements, had a glorious week on the back of inflationary pressures as well as positive sentiment about industrial production, with monthly data to be released ahead of Monday's open

Yttrium Oxide (Rare Earth) Daily Prices | Sources: ϕpost chart, Refinitiv data


Base Metals Slide, While Precious Metals Rise On A Weaker Dollar

The correlation between copper prices and inflation expectations has weakened recently, as the base metal is more impacted by the weakening economic growth than a renewed "reflation trade"

Log correlation between copper prices and 10Y TIPS breakeven inflation | Source: Refinitiv


Precious Metals Fall On Higher US Real Rates, Other Commodity Groups Mixed

Coal shortages in China are pushing prices ever higher, a particularly serious issue ahead of winter in a country where about 60% of power generation is based on thermal coal

Natural Gas & Thermal Coal Front Month Futures Prices | Source: Refinitiv


Energy Group Rises Further On Otherwise Quiet Day For Commodities

Good week across the complex: all groups made gains except precious metals, which were slightly hampered by the rise in real US rates

S&P GSCI Sub Indices Total Returns For The Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data


Risk-On Sentiment Positive For Energy, Base Metals But Rise In Real Rates Negative For Precious Metals

Though the move is less extreme than in Europe, US Nat Gas futures prices are still rising ahead of winter and moving in sync with coal futures (main substitute for power production)

Henry Hub Natural Gas, Thermal Coal and Coking Coal All Up Together Ahead Of Winter | Source: Refinitiv


Broad Rise Across The Commodities Complex, Led By Energy And Industrial Metals

Crude oil rose sharply after the weekly EIA report showed a stronger than expected inventories draw, while a sharp increase in refinery capacity utilization led to an unexpected gasoline build

Shanghai Tin Front Month Futures | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Quiet Day For Commodities, But Precious Metals Rise, Led By Platinum, Rhodium And Silver

The Baltic Exchange Dry Bulk Index was up another 2.5% today, as shipping rates are still rising on some routes, with the Capesize Index up 4.6% today

Baltic Dry Shipping Index Has More Than Tripled So Far This Year | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Gold Rises On Risk Aversion, Other Commodity Groups Fall

Palladium and platinum trade more like industrial metals and were down big today (-7% and -3% respectively)

Palladium Has Struggled Recently With The Drop In Industrial Metals | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Losses Across All S&P GSCI Sub Indices On Friday, Stronger Dollar Weighs

The best performers in the commodities complex this week were uranium, lumber and oats

Uranium Prices Have Jumped This Month | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


S&P GSCI Down Today, With Industrial Metals And Precious Metals The Biggest Losers

Natural gas took a breather today after huge gains and a larger-than-expected weekly injection, while copper is down this week in line with the 10Y TIPS breakeven inflation

Huge Bounce In Lumber Futures Prices, Up 30% Today | Source: Refinitiv


Big Day For Energy As Crude Oil And Natural Gas Make Further Gains

We've been talking about those a lot lately, but the rise in their prices has gone exponential, with a temporary peak likely in sight for thermal coal, coking coal and natural gas

Natural Gas, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal Front-Month Futures Prices | Source: Refinitiv


Industrial Metals Fall While Other Commodity Groups Rise

Copper followed the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation down today, with the 3-month correlation of their weekly returns staying above 80%

Copper Front-Month Futures Prices vs 10Y TIPS Breakeven Inflation | Source: Refinitiv


Energy Commodities Rise, Nat Gas At Highest Since 2014; Other Commodity Groups Fall

Thermal goal and natural gas have been rising in tandem: the US Energy Information Administration forecasts that high natural gas prices will push coal's share of power generation up from 20% in 2020 to 24% in 2021

Thermal Coal vs. Natural Gas Front-Month Futures Prices | Source: Refinitiv


Positive Performance In Most Commodities Groups Today, Except For Precious Metals

Palladium prices have fallen 12% over the past week, as production issues in the auto sector are weighing heavily on demand

Palladium Spot Prices Intraday | Source: Refinitiv data


Crude Oil Down, While Base Metals And Precious Metals Rise On Weaker Dollar

New seven-year high for natural gas prices despite larger than estimated weekly EIA injection report, with the market expected to remain tight into winter

Natural gas front-month futures prices settled above $5 | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data


Energy And Base Metals Rise, Ags And Precious Metals Fall

The resumption of operations in the Gulf of Mexico after Ida is slower than expected, with roughly 77% of the Gulf's total oil production capacity still offline

Nat Gas Has Almost Doubled Year To Date | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data