Cross Asset

Macro Markets Saw Heightened Volatility, With Both The US Dollar And Commodities Rising This Week

All GSCI sub-indices rose this week, led by agriculture and precious metals; Chinese markets were open again and saw big gains after the new year holiday, most notably iron ore, thermal coal, and copper

Published ET

US Dollar Index Intraday This Week | Source: Refinitiv

US Dollar Index Intraday This Week | Source: Refinitiv


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WEEKLY PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR CURRENCIES

  • The US Dollar Index at 96.02 (YTD: +0.37%)
  • Euro down at 1.1349 (YTD: -0.2%)
  • Yen down at 115.41 (YTD: -0.3%)
  • Onshore Yuan at 6.3540 (YTD: +0.1%)
  • Swiss franc down at 0.9256 (YTD: -1.5%)
  • Sterling up at 1.3560 (YTD: +0.2%)
  • Canadian up dollar at 1.2736 (YTD: -0.8%)
  • Australian up dollar at 0.7135 (YTD: -1.7%)
  • NZ dollar up at 0.6647 (YTD: -2.6%)

FX Majors This Week | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE MOVES IN SOVEREIGN CDS THIS WEEK

  • Russia (rated BBB): up 12.0 % to 220 bp (1Y range: 75-254bp)
  • Brazil (rated BB-): up 4.8 % to 231 bp (1Y range: 152-266bp)
  • Mexico (rated BBB-): up 10.1 % to 115 bp (1Y range: 80-124bp)
  • Vietnam (rated BB): up 4.8 % to 114 bp (1Y range: 89-114bp)
  • Philippines (rated BBB): up 8.5 % to 80 bp (1Y range: 36-78bp)
  • Indonesia (rated BBB): up 5.4 % to 95 bp (1Y range: 66-96bp)
  • Malaysia (rated BBB+): up 6.4 % to 64 bp (1Y range: 36-65bp)
  • Turkey (rated B+): down 6.1 % to 509 bp (1Y range: 282-614bp)
  • China (rated A+): up 7.2 % to 53 bp (1Y range: 28-58bp)
  • Chile (rated A-): up 4.3 % to 83 bp (1Y range: 43-95bp)

CDX EM Sovereign Credit Spread | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

LARGEST FX MOVES THIS WEEK

  • Seychelles rupee up 8.3% (YTD: +4.0%)
  • CFA Franc BEAC up 4.2% (YTD: +4.1%)
  • Tonga Pa'anga up 3.8% (YTD: +2.2%)
  • Peru Sol down 2.4% (YTD: +6.0%)
  • Samoa Tala up 2.1% (YTD: +0.8%)
  • Namibian Dollar down 2.0% (YTD: +4.9%)
  • South Africa Rand down 1.9% (YTD: +5.1%)
  • Czech Koruna down 2.1% (YTD: +1.1%)
  • Swedish Krona down 2.4% (YTD: -3.3%)
  • Russian Rouble down 2.5% (YTD: -3.2%)

YTD BIGGEST WINNERS & LOSERS

  • Afghani up 12.7%
  • Angolan Kwanza up 6.5%
  • Brazilian Real up 6.1%
  • Peru Sol up 6.0%
  • Chilean Peso up 5.2%
  • South Africa Rand up 5.1%
  • Georgian Lari up 5.1%
  • Namibian Dollar up 4.9%
  • Liberian Dollar down 5.5%
  • New Zambian Kwacha down 11.2%
EUR CNH JPY 1-month ATM implied Volatilities | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataEUR CNH JPY Skew In 1-Month 10-Delta Risk Reversals | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

COMMODITIES - GAINERS THIS WEEK

  • Commodities Exchange Center Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China (TSI) up 15.3% (YTD: 34.4%), now at 151.57
  • Zhengzhou Exchange Thermal Coal up 14.1% (YTD: 3.6%), now at 834.80
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% China CFR Swap Monthly up 14.0% (YTD: 32.9%), now at 149.75
  • CME Random Length Lumber up 13.7% (YTD: 5.0%), now at 1,216.00
  • Baltic Exchange Clean Tank Index up 9.5% (YTD: -18.7%), now at 645.00
  • Rhodium Johnson Matthey New York 0930 up 8.9% (YTD: 30.1%), now at 18,350.00
  • Newcastle Coal ICE Europe Monthly up 7.8% (YTD: 44.0%), now at 245.00
  • Bonded Copper Shanghai International Exchange up 6.6% (YTD: 7.7%), now at 66,880.00
  • SHFE Aluminum up 5.8% (YTD: 13.1%), now at 22,360.00
  • SHFE Nickel up 5.3% (YTD: 16.8%), now at 175,550.00

Iron Ore China | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

COMMODITIES - LOSERS THIS WEEK

  • Henry Hub Natural Gas down -13.8% (YTD: 10.7%), now at 03.94
  • European Union Aviation Allowance Continuation Month 1 down -3.7% (YTD: 16.0%), now at 90.16
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil ICE Europe down -2.8% (YTD: 22.1%), now at 827.25
  • Iridium Johnson Matthey New York 0930 down -1.3% (YTD: -2.5%), now at 3,900.00
  • ICE-US Cotton No. 2 down -1.2% (YTD: 9.6%), now at 124.96
  • CME Dry Whey down -1.0% (YTD: 21.3%), now at 77.50
  • CME Non Fat Dry Milk down -1.0% (YTD: 12.6%), now at 173.78
  • CBoT Rough Rice down -0.4% (YTD: 4.4%), now at 15.21
  • SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 down -0.1% (YTD: -0.5%), now at 15,235.00
  • CME Live Cattle down -0.1% (YTD: 2.0%), now at 141.88

S&P GSCI Sub Indices This Week | Sources: phipost.com, FactSet data

ENERGY THIS WEEK

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 93.10 per barrel, up 0.9% (YTD: +20.9%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 94.44 per barrel, up 1.3% (YTD: +19.1%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 245.00 per tonne, up 7.8% (YTD: +44.0%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 3.94 per MMBtu, down -13.8% (YTD: +10.7%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.74 per gallon, up 2.2% (YTD: +19.2%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 827.25 per tonne, down -2.8% (YTD: +22.1%)

GSCI Energy This Week | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS THIS WEEK

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.48 per pound, up 0.5% (YTD: +2.7%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 842.50 per tonne, up 5.1% (YTD: +22.8%)
  • Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,360 per tonne, up 5.8% (YTD: +13.1%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 175,550 per tonne, up 5.3% (YTD: +16.8%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,235 per tonne, down -0.1% (YTD: -0.5%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,800 per tonne, up 4.6% (YTD: +9.4%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 337,180 per tonne, up 3.1% (YTD: +13.8%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 25,370 per tonne, up 1.7% (YTD: +7.0%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 514,000 per tonne, up 3.0% (YTD: +5.5%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 2,030,000 per tonne, up 5.2% (YTD: +52.1%)

Base Metals This Week | Sources: phipost.com, FactSet data

PRECIOUS METALS THIS WEEK

  • Gold spot currently at US$ 1,858.95 per troy ounce, up 2.8% (YTD: +2.4%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.11, down -2.9% (YTD: -4.8%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 23.55 per troy ounce, up 4.7% (YTD: +2.3%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 23.03, down -4.7% (YTD: +0.3%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,310.34 per troy ounce, up 0.9% (YTD: +17.6%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,027.00 per troy ounce, up 0.4% (YTD: +6.7%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 18,350 per troy ounce, up 8.9% (YTD: +30.1%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 3,900 per troy ounce, down -1.3% (YTD: -2.5%)

GSCI Precious Metals | Sources: phipost.com, FactSet data

AGS THIS WEEK

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 141.88 cents per pound, down 0.1% (YTD: +2.0%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 90.50 cents per pound, up 4.0% (YTD: +9.4%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 15.21 cents per hundredweight, down -0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,583.00 cents per bushel, up 1.9% (YTD: +19.2%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 651.00 cents per bushel, up 4.9% (YTD: +9.2%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 797.75 cents per bushel, up 4.5% (YTD: +2.3%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 18.29 cents per pound, up 0.2% (YTD: -2.8%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 124.96 cents per pound, down -1.2% (YTD: +9.6%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,764 per tonne, up 3.7% (YTD: +8.1%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 6,089 per tonne, up 5.1% (YTD: +10.5%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 1,216.00 per 1,000 board feet, up 13.7% (YTD: +5.0%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,520 per tonne, up 0.1% (YTD: +0.4%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 65.72 cents per pound, up 0.6% (YTD: +17.7%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 5,800 per tonne, up 0.4% (YTD: +12.6%)

GSCI Agriculture | Sources: phipost.com, FactSet data

SHIPPING THIS WEEK

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 1,977, up 38.9% (YTD: -10.9%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 15,218, unchanged (YTD: +11.0%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 958, down -11.8% (YTD: +9.5%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 571, down -3.4% (YTD: +5.7%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 6,964, unchanged (YTD: -1.9%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,483, down -1.2% (YTD: +2.0%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 989, up 0.1% (YTD: -12.5%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 8,399, unchanged (YTD: +7.5%)

Baltic Exchange Dry Index | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA front-month future (ICE) currently at EUR 92.87 per tonne, down -3.7% (YTD: +15.9%)

EUA Front-Month Futures | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data