Commodities

Brent Settles Over $71, While Backwardation Grows As Market Pushes Back Potential Additional Iranian Supply To Q3 At Earliest

Gold and silver up slightly on inflation concerns and soybean oil rises to 10-year high on tight global supplies of edible oils

Published ET

Brent Crude Hourly | Source: Refinitiv

Brent Crude Hourly | Source: Refinitiv


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HEADLINES & MACRO

  • Nuclear talks with Iran to adjourn until 10 June
  • Fed Beige Book flags increased pricing pressures since previous report. Firms expected to start passing higher costs, charging higher prices in months ahead.
  • API inventory report: Gasoline +2.51M barrels, Distillates +1.59M barrels, Cushing +741K barrels

NOTABLE GAINERS

  • Freightos Baltic North America East Coast To China/East Asia 40 Container Index up 12.8% (YTD: 96.9%)
  • Freightos Baltic North America East Coast To Europe 40 Container Index up 12.1% (YTD: 77.6%)
  • Freightos Baltic North America West Coast To China/East Asia 40 Container Index up 7.7% (YTD: 95.9%)
  • DCE Coke up 7.2% (YTD: -16.2%)
  • Pork Primal Cutout Butt up 6.1% (YTD: 128.6%)
  • CME Random Length Lumber up 5.0% (YTD: 52.4%)
  • DCE RBD Palm Oil up 4.4% (YTD: 21.7%)
  • CBoT Soybean Oil up 4.4% (YTD: 62.4%)
  • Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil up 3.7% (YTD: 7.1%)
  • DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 3.6% (YTD: 6.6%)
  • CME Live Cattle up 3.1% (YTD: 3.7%)

NOTABLE LOSERS

  • SMM Erbium Oxide Spot Price Daily down -7.4% (YTD: 12.3%)
  • DCE Iron Ore Continuation Month 1 down -2.7% (YTD: 14.2%)
  • Johnson Matthey Rhodium New York 0930 down -2.2% (YTD: 45.2%)
  • CBoT Corn down -2.0% (YTD: 39.5%)
  • CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index down -2.0% (YTD: -13.4%)
  • EEX European-Carbon- Secondary Trading down -1.9% (YTD: 60.1%)
  • ICE Europe CO2 EUA Yearly down -1.9% (YTD: 57.1%)
  • Shanghai International Exchange TSR 20 Rubber down -1.7% (YTD: 4.1%)
  • COMEX Copper down -1.3% (YTD: 30.9%)
  • CBoT Soybean Meal down -1.2% (YTD: -9.3%)
  • SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 down -1.2% (YTD: 4.2%)
  • SMM Rare Earth Terbium Oxide Spot Price Daily down -1.1% (YTD: -9.3%)
Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSources: ϕpost, FactSet data

ENERGY

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 68.73 per barrel, up 1.6% on the day (YTD: +41.9%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 71.26 per barrel, up 1.6% on the day (YTD: +37.7%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent volatility at 26.9, down -5.8% on the day (12-month range: 24.7 - 58.9)
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 119.95 per tonne, down -0.5% on the day (YTD: +49.0%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 3.08 per MMBtu, down -0.9% on the day (YTD: +21.1%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.19 per gallon, up 1.1% on the day (YTD: +55.8%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 579.75 per tonne, up 0.8% on the day (YTD: +37.3%)
Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.60 per pound, down -1.3% on the day (YTD: +30.9%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 1,232.50 per tonne, down -2.7% on the day (YTD: +14.2%)
  • Aluminium (Shanghai) currently at CNY 18,475 per tonne, down -0.6% on the day (YTD: +18.9%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 133,800 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +7.3%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,385 per tonne, down -1.2% on the day (YTD: +4.2%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,830 per tonne, up 0.7% on the day (YTD: +14.5%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 206,120 per tonne, up 0.7% on the day (YTD: +37.7%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,945 per tonne, up 0.9% on the day (YTD: +10.4%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 346,500 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +26.5%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 620,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +27.8%)
Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

PRECIOUS METALS

  • Gold spot currently at US$ 1,907.46 per troy ounce, up 0.4% on the day (YTD: +0.5%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.53, down -3.4% on the day (YTD: -18.4%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 28.15 per troy ounce, up 1.0% on the day (YTD: +6.8%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 29.52, down -1.5% on the day (YTD: -27.9%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,866.52 per troy ounce, down -0.2% on the day (YTD: +16.8%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,194.82 per troy ounce, down -0.1% on the day (YTD: +11.4%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 24,750 per troy ounce, down -2.2% on the day (YTD: +45.2%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 6,300 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +142.3%)
Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGRO

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 117.13 cents per pound, up 3.1% on the day (YTD: +3.7%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 118.25 cents per pound, down -0.3% on the day (YTD: +68.3%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.31 cents per hundredweight, up 0.2% on the day (YTD: +7.3%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,571.25 cents per bushel, up 0.9% on the day (YTD: +18.8%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 678.00 cents per bushel, down -2.0% on the day (YTD: +39.5%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 690.75 cents per bushel, down -0.9% on the day (YTD: +7.3%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 17.68 cents per pound, down -0.1% on the day (YTD: +14.1%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 83.77 cents per pound, down -0.6% on the day (YTD: +7.2%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,426 per tonne, down -0.2% on the day (YTD: -6.8%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 3,848 per tonne, down -0.4% on the day (YTD: +21.6%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 1,330.50 per 1,000 board feet, up 5.0% on the day (YTD: +52.4%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 10,485 per tonne, down -1.7% on the day (YTD: +4.1%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 71.15 cents per pound, up 4.4% on the day (YTD: +62.4%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,166 per tonne, up 3.7% on the day (YTD: +7.1%)
Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 2,568, down -1.1% on the day (YTD: +88.0%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 5,577, up 1.5% on the day (YTD: +32.8%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,014, up 7.7% on the day (YTD: +95.9%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 645, up 12.1% on the day (YTD: +77.6%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 4,366, unchanged (YTD: +133.6%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 10,627, up 0.9% on the day (YTD: +87.7%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,739, down -0.2% on the day (YTD: +26.4%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 3,099, up 0.3% on the day (YTD: +83.2%)
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 51.40 per tonne, down -1.9% on the day (YTD: +57.1%)

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