Broad Based Rebound In Commodities On Lower Dollar, Tweak In Chinese Reserve Ratio Requirements

In the absence of news regarding OPEC+ production or Iran, the path of least resistance is up for crude oil spot prices as supplies increases are off in the short term

Published Jul 9, 2021 6:15 PM ET

Brent Crude 1-Year Calendar Spread Showing Deepening Backwardation This Week | Source: Refinitiv

NOTABLE GAINERS TODAY

SMM Rare Earth Yttrium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 10.3% (YTD: 56.1%)
SMM Rare Earth Neodymium Metal Spot Price Daily up 7.7% (YTD: 5.2%)
DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 6.8% (YTD: 44.6%)
SMM Rare Earth Neodymium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 4.0% (YTD: 2.9%)
EEX CO2 European-Carbon- Secondary Trading up 3.7% (YTD: 69.0%)
Brent Crude Spot Free On Board (FOB) Sullom Voe North Sea up 3.2% (YTD: 53.9%)
SMM Erbium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 3.1% (YTD: 18.3%)
ICE Europe Low Sulphur Gasoil up 3.0% (YTD: 45.0%)
Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil up 2.6% (YTD: 3.3%)
Platinum spot up 2.5% (YTD: 3.3%)

NOTABLE LOSERS TODAY

Pork Primal Cutout Butt down -4.6% (YTD: 91.9%)
CBoT Soybean Oil down -2.9% (YTD: 44.0%)
CME Random Length Lumber down -2.2% (YTD: -19.5%)
Gold/US Dollar 1 Month ATM Option IV down -1.7% (YTD: -17.5%)
CME Class III Milk down -1.4% (YTD: 6.6%)
CBoT Corn down -1.3% (YTD: 30.1%)
SHFE Rebar down -1.0% (YTD: 16.1%)
ICE-US Sugar No. 11 down -1.0% (YTD: 11.6%)
CME Cash Settled Cheese down -1.0% (YTD: -0.3%)
CBoT Soybean Meal down -0.8% (YTD: -18.9%)
SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 down -0.7% (YTD: 6.5%)

NET POSITIONS OF MANAGED MONEY (WEEKLY CFTC REPORT)

ENERGY

Light Sweet Crude reduced net long position
Ice Brent reduced net long position
Gasoline Rbob reduced net long position
No.2 Heating Oil reduced net long position
Ice Gasoil reduced net long position
Henry Hub Ice increased net long position

METALS

Gold increased net long position
Silver increased net long position
Platinum reduced net long position
Palladium increased net long position
Copper-Grade#1 increased net long position

AGRICULTURE

Wheat turned to net short
Corn reduced net long position
Rough Rice reduced net short position
Oats increased net short position
Soybeans increased net long position
Soybean Oil reduced net long position
Soybean Meal increased net long position
Lean Hogs reduced net long position
Live Cattle reduced net long position
Feeder Cattle increased net long position
Cocoa increased net short position
Coffee reduced net long position
Robusta Coffee reduced net long position
Frozen Orange Juice increased net long position
Sugar No.11 increased net long position
White Sugar increased net long position

GSCI Sub Indices 1 Week Returns | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

GSCI Equal Weight Total Return Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

ENERGY TODAY

WTI crude front month currently at US$ 74.56 per barrel, up 2.2% (YTD: +53.7%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent crude front month currently at US$ 75.55 per barrel, up 1.9% (YTD: +45.8%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent volatility at 29.8, down -2.0% (12-month range: 24.7 - 57.6)
Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 143.00 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: +77.6%)
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 3.67 per MMBtu, down -0.4% (YTD: +44.7%)
Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.29 per gallon, up 1.6% (YTD: +62.7%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 610.00 per tonne, up 3.0% (YTD: +45.0%)

Crude Oil 1-Month ATM Implied Volatilities | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS TODAY

Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.35 per pound, up 1.9% (YTD: +23.9%)
Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently unchanged at CNY 1,346.00 per tonne (YTD: +24.7%)
Aluminium (Shanghai) currently at CNY 19,080 per tonne, up 0.3% (YTD: +20.3%)
Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 140,040 per tonne, up 1.8% (YTD: +12.4%)
Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,850 per tonne, down -0.7% (YTD: +6.5%)
Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,899 per tonne, down -1.0% (YTD: +16.1%)
Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 221,550 per tonne, up 0.9% (YTD: +45.8%)
Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,475 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: +7.0%)
Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 370,500 per tonne, up 0.8% (YTD: +35.2%)
Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 620,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +27.8%)

GSCI Base Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

Base Metals 1-Month ATM IVs | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

PRECIOUS METALS TODAY

Gold spot currently at US$ 1,807.95 per troy ounce, up 0.3% (YTD: -4.7%)
Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.85, down -1.7% (YTD: -17.5%)
Silver spot currently at US$ 26.08 per troy ounce, up 0.6% (YTD: -1.1%)
Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 22.48, up 0.5% (YTD: -44.9%)
Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,809.34 per troy ounce, up 0.2% (YTD: +14.9%)
Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,103.92 per troy ounce, up 2.5% (YTD: +3.3%)
Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 17,500 per troy ounce, down -0.6% (YTD: +2.6%)
Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 5,650 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +117.3%)

GSCI Precious Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

Precious Metals 1-Month ATM IVs | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGS TODAY

Live Cattle (CME) currently unchanged at US$ 119.23 cents per pound (YTD: +5.6%)
Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 111.00 cents per pound, up 0.8% (YTD: +58.0%)
Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 12.60 cents per hundredweight, up 0.9% (YTD: +1.6%)
Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,404.00 cents per bushel, up 1.0% (YTD: +6.7%)
Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 629.75 cents per bushel, down -1.3% (YTD: +30.1%)
Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 608.50 cents per bushel, down -0.6% (YTD: -5.0%)
Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 17.24 cents per pound, down -1.0% (YTD: +11.6%)
Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 87.80 cents per pound, up 2.5% (YTD: +12.6%)
Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,266 per tonne, up 2.3% (YTD: -10.9%)
Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 3,775 per tonne, up 0.9% (YTD: +19.3%)
Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 702.50 per 1,000 board feet, down -2.2% (YTD: -19.5%)
TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 10,480 per tonne, down -0.3% (YTD: +3.4%)
Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 62.41 cents per pound, down -2.9% (YTD: +44.0%)
Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,020 per tonne, up 2.6% (YTD: +3.3%)

GSCI Agriculture | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

Ags 1-month ATM Implied Volatilities | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING TODAY

Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 3,281, up 1.2% (YTD: +140.2%)
Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 6,046, unchanged (YTD: +44.0%)
Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,023, up 1.0% (YTD: +97.6%)
Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 652, unchanged (YTD: +79.7%)
Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 5,838, unchanged (YTD: +212.4%)
Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 13,073, unchanged (YTD: +130.9%)
Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,590, unchanged (YTD: +15.6%)
Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 4,248, unchanged (YTD: +151.1%)

Baltic Dry Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

Freightos Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 54.26 per tonne, up 3.6% (YTD: +65.8%)

CO2 Permits EUA Futures | Sources: phipost, Refinitiv data