Commodities

Commodities Prices Fall With Global Growth Concerns Weighing On The Complex

The GSCI Equal-Weighted Total Return Index has been bouncing off its 3-month moving average for a while and it will be interesting to watch if it finally breaks below it or bounces off it in a more decisive way (chart down the page)

Published ET

Lumber front-month futures prices are now down close to 50% year to date | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

Lumber front-month futures prices are now down close to 50% year to date | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

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HEADLINES & MACRO

WEEKLY API INVENTORIES DATA

  • Crude oil: draw of 1.16m barrels
  • Gasoline: draw of 1.98m barrels
  • Distillates: build of 502k barrels
  • Cushing: draw of 1.74m barrels

REUTERS CONSENSUS FOR EIA DATA TOMORROW

  • Crude oil: draw of 1.06m barrels
  • Gasoline: draw of 1.67m barrels
  • Distillates: build of 276k barrels

NOTABLE GAINERS TODAY

  • Shanghai International Exchange TSR 20 Rubber up 5.2% (YTD: 15.3%)
  • ICE-US Cocoa up 2.5% (YTD: 0.2%)
  • SHFE Rubber up 1.9% (YTD: 0.5%)
  • Coffee Robusta Vietnam Grade 1 Wet Pol Spot up 1.5% (YTD: 23.1%)
  • SMM Lithium Metal Spot Price Daily up 1.5% (YTD: 41.2%)
  • DCE Coke up 1.3% (YTD: 8.1%)
  • SHFE Stannum up 1.2% (YTD: 60.8%)
  • SHFE Zinc up 1.0% (YTD: 8.7%)
  • ICE-US Cotton No. 2 up 0.9% (YTD: 22.5%)
  • Coffee Arabica Colombia Excelso EP Spot up 0.7% (YTD: 39.8%)
  • SHFE Aluminum up 0.6% (YTD: 29.7%)
  • ICE Europe Low Sulphur Gasoil up 0.5% (YTD: 36.5%)
  • DCE Iron Ore Continuation Month 1 up 0.5% (YTD: -9.8%)
  • DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 0.4% (YTD: 61.6%)
  • SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 up 0.4% (YTD: 4.8%)

NOTABLE LOSERS TODAY

  • Palladium spot down -4.5% (YTD: 1.7%)
  • CBoT Wheat down -3.4% (YTD: 14.7%)
  • CME Random Length Lumber down -3.1% (YTD: -47.7%)
  • Freightos Baltic North America East Coast To Europe 40 Container Index down -2.9% (YTD: 46.3%)
  • COMEX Copper down -2.8% (YTD: 19.5%)
  • Platinum spot down -2.8% (YTD: -6.9%)
  • NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas down -2.8% (YTD: 51.1%)
  • ICE-US Coffee C down -2.3% (YTD: 39.5%)
  • Johnson Matthey Iridium New York 0930 down -1.9% (YTD: 100.0%)
  • Freightos Baltic Mediterranean To China/East Asia 40 Container Index down -1.8% (YTD: 7.0%)
  • NYMEX RBOB Gasoline down -1.6% (YTD: 53.8%)
  • Intercontinental Exchange European Union Allowance (EUA) Yearly down -1.6% (YTD: 74.9%)
  • SMM Rare Earth Neodymium Oxide Spot Price Daily down -1.6% (YTD: 22.5%)
  • EEX European-Carbon- Secondary Trading down -1.6% (YTD: 78.4%)
  • Crude Oil WTI Cushing US FOB down -1.4% (YTD: 37.5%)
GSCI Sub-Indices Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataGSCI Equal Weight Total Return Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

ENERGY TODAY

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 66.61 per barrel, down -1.0% (YTD: +37.2%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 69.05 per barrel, down -0.7% (YTD: +33.3%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent volatility at 32.8, up 0.3% (12-month range: 26.1 - 43.4)
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 171.45 per tonne, down -1.1% (YTD: +113.0%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 3.83 per MMBtu, down -2.8% (YTD: +51.1%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.16 per gallon, down -1.6% (YTD: +53.8%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 567.25 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: +36.5%)
GSCI Energy Today | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataWTI, Brent 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS TODAY

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.20 per pound, down -2.8% (YTD: +19.5%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 953.00 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: -9.8%)
  • Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 20,270 per tonne, up 0.6% (YTD: +29.7%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 144,200 per tonne, down -1.1% (YTD: +18.3%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,350 per tonne, up 0.4% (YTD: +4.8%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 5,203 per tonne, down -1.4% (YTD: +23.8%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 243,190 per tonne, up 1.2% (YTD: +60.8%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,690 per tonne, up 1.0% (YTD: +8.7%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 362,500 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +32.3%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 685,000 per tonne, up 1.5% (YTD: +41.2%)
GSCI Industrial Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataLME Base Metals 1-month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

PRECIOUS METALS TODAY

  • Gold spot unchanged at US$ 1,786.10 per troy ounce (YTD: -5.9%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.80, up 0.1% (YTD: -17.9%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 23.65 per troy ounce, down -0.8% (YTD: -10.4%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 22.46, down -1.5% (YTD: -44.8%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,508.36 per troy ounce, down -4.5% (YTD: +1.7%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,000.18 per troy ounce, down -2.8% (YTD: -6.9%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 19,000 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +11.4%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 5,200 per troy ounce, down -1.9% (YTD: +100.0%)
GSCI Precious Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataGold, Silver 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGS TODAY

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 123.30 cents per pound, down 0.2% (YTD: +9.2%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 87.90 cents per pound, down -1.2% (YTD: +25.1%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.45 cents per hundredweight, down -0.8% (YTD: +8.4%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,370.00 cents per bushel, down -0.5% (YTD: +4.1%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 558.75 cents per bushel, down -1.2% (YTD: +15.3%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 734.75 cents per bushel, down -3.4% (YTD: +14.7%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) unchanged at US$ 20.02 cents per pound (YTD: +29.2%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 95.70 cents per pound, up 0.9% (YTD: +22.5%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,607 per tonne, up 2.5% (YTD: +0.2%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 4,425 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +39.8%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 456.20 per 1,000 board feet, down -3.1% (YTD: -47.7%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,560 per tonne, up 5.2% (YTD: +15.3%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 62.63 cents per pound, down -1.2% (YTD: +44.3%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,635 per tonne, down -0.6% (YTD: +19.1%)
GSCI Agriculture | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataAGs 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING TODAY

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 3,606, up 1.1% (YTD: +164.0%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 16,131, unchanged (YTD: +284.1%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 967, unchanged (YTD: +86.8%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 531, down -2.9% (YTD: +46.3%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 5,929, unchanged (YTD: +217.2%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,038, unchanged (YTD: +147.9%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,549, unchanged (YTD: +12.6%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 5,255, unchanged (YTD: +210.6%)
Freightos Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataBaltic Dry Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 57.23 per tonne, down -1.6% (YTD: +74.9%)

EUA Front-Month Futures Prices | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data