Weaker Dollar Helps Strong Rebound In Crude Oil, Industrial Metals

The negative macro data is encouraging a more dovish take on upcoming central bank policies, which is pushing risky assets higher

Published Aug 23, 2021 7:50 PM ET

Commodities 10-year total returns are still very poor | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet data

China reported a decline in its daily Covid-19 infection rate, reducing worries about a broader economic slowdown
DOE announced it intends to sell up to 20 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR
IHS Markit Flash PMIs in the US and Eurozone came in below expectations

ICE Europe Brent Crude up 5.5% (YTD: 32.7%)
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) up 5.3% (YTD: 35.3%)
Palladium spot up 5.2% (YTD: -2.1%)
NYMEX NY Harbor ULSD up 5.1% (YTD: 35.8%)
CME Random Length Lumber up 5.1% (YTD: -42.9%)
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline up 4.9% (YTD: 50.8%)
ICE Europe Low Sulphur Gasoil up 4.2% (YTD: 35.3%)
CBoT Soybean Oil up 3.1% (YTD: 36.7%)
Silver spot up 2.7% (YTD: -10.4%)
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas up 2.4% (YTD: 55.4%)
COMEX Copper up 2.4% (YTD: 20.5%)
Platinum spot up 2.3% (YTD: -4.7%)

Johnson Matthey Rhodium New York 0930 down -5.6% (YTD: -0.3%)
CBoT Soybean Meal down -1.9% (YTD: -20.2%)
CME Lean Hogs down -1.3% (YTD: 24.5%)
SHFE Bitumen Continuation Month 1 down -1.2% (YTD: 27.4%)
Commodities Exchange Center Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China (TSI) down -0.7% (YTD: 2.3%)
CME Cattle(Feeder) down -0.5% (YTD: 13.9%)
Freightos Baltic China/East Asia To North Europe 40 Container Index down -0.5% (YTD: 147.5%)
Shanghai International Exchange TSR 20 Rubber down -0.5% (YTD: 10.4%)
Coffee Arabica Colombia Excelso EP Spot down -0.3% (YTD: 36.6%)
CME Dry Whey down -0.3% (YTD: 25.2%)
SHFE Zinc down -0.2% (YTD: 7.0%)
ICE-US Cocoa down -0.2% (YTD: -1.1%)
SHFE Rubber down -0.2% (YTD: -2.4%)
CBoT Corn down -0.1% (YTD: 11.2%)
SGX Iron Ore 62% China CFR Swap Monthly down -0.1% (YTD: -1.1%)

WTI crude front month currently at US$ 65.53 per barrel, up 5.3% (YTD: +35.3%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent crude front month currently at US$ 68.63 per barrel, up 5.5% (YTD: +32.7%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent volatility at 32.6, down -9.4% (12-month range: 26.1 - 43.4)
Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 170.00 per tonne, up 1.3% (YTD: +111.2%)
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 3.93 per MMBtu, up 2.4% (YTD: +55.4%)
Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.12 per gallon, up 4.9% (YTD: +50.8%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 568.00 per tonne, up 4.2% (YTD: +35.3%)

Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.23 per pound, up 2.4% (YTD: +20.5%)
Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 905.50 per tonne, up 1.8% (YTD: -17.1%)
Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 20,375 per tonne, up 1.5% (YTD: +29.3%)
Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 141,910 per tonne, up 0.6% (YTD: +13.6%)
Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,440 per tonne, up 0.8% (YTD: +4.3%)
Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 5,130 per tonne, up 2.3% (YTD: +20.1%)
Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 234,960 per tonne, up 0.5% (YTD: +54.5%)
Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,250 per tonne, down -0.2% (YTD: +7.0%)
Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 362,500 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +32.3%)
Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 705,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +45.4%)

Gold spot currently at US$ 1,802.16 per troy ounce, up 1.4% (YTD: -4.9%)
Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 13.26, up 4.0% (YTD: -15.8%)
Silver spot currently at US$ 23.54 per troy ounce, up 2.7% (YTD: -10.4%)
Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 23.54, up 3.7% (YTD: -42.4%)
Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,401.02 per troy ounce, up 5.2% (YTD: -2.1%)
Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,014.41 per troy ounce, up 2.3% (YTD: -4.7%)
Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 17,000 per troy ounce, down -5.6% (YTD: -0.3%)
Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 5,200 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +100.0%)

Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 126.45 cents per pound, up 1.8% (YTD: +12.0%)
Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 87.48 cents per pound, down -1.3% (YTD: +24.5%)
Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.41 cents per hundredweight, up 0.9% (YTD: +8.0%)
Soybeans Composite (CBOT) unchanged at US$ 1,295.25 cents per bushel (YTD: -1.6%)
Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 538.75 cents per bushel, down -0.1% (YTD: +11.2%)
Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 719.00 cents per bushel, up 0.8% (YTD: +12.4%)
Sugar No.11 (ICE US) unchanged at US$ 19.58 cents per pound (YTD: +26.4%)
Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 94.54 cents per pound, up 0.7% (YTD: +21.0%)
Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,574 per tonne, down -0.2% (YTD: -1.1%)
Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 4,323 per tonne, down -0.3% (YTD: +36.6%)
Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 498.80 per 1,000 board feet, up 5.1% (YTD: -42.9%)
TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,030 per tonne, down -0.5% (YTD: +10.4%)
Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 59.09 cents per pound, up 3.1% (YTD: +36.7%)
Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,552 per tonne, up 0.8% (YTD: +17.0%)

Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 4,092, up 2.9% (YTD: +199.6%)
Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 18,425, unchanged (YTD: +338.7%)
Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 911, unchanged (YTD: +76.0%)
Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 463, unchanged (YTD: +27.6%)
Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 5,929, unchanged (YTD: +217.2%)
Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,016, down -0.5% (YTD: +147.5%)
Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,549, unchanged (YTD: +12.6%)
Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 5,361, unchanged (YTD: +216.9%)

EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 55.34 per tonne, up 1.8% (YTD: +69.1%)

CO2 EUA Front Month Futures | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data