Industrial Metals Fall While Other Commodity Groups Rise

Copper followed the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation down today, with the 3-month correlation of their weekly returns staying above 80%

Published Sep 14, 2021 8:38 PM ET

Copper Front-Month Futures Prices vs 10Y TIPS Breakeven Inflation | Source: Refinitiv

API weekly inventories report: crude oil draw of 5.44M barrels, gasoline draw of 2.76M barrels, distillate draw of 2.89M barrels, Cushing draw of 1.35M barrels
Consensus estimate for tomorrow's EIA report: Crude draw of 3.54M barrels, gasoline draw of 1.96M barrels, distillate draw of 1.61M barrels, with refinery capacity utilization expected to rise 1.7%
As thermal and coking coals keep risking, GS wakes up and almost doubles its price forecast for front-month Newcastle coal to US$ 190 per ton in 4Q21 (7% above the current market price of $177.45): "A strong recovery in global power demand, gas prices, and steel production, combined with supply side issues in Australia, South Africa, China and Mongolia due to infrastructure and Covid-related challenges has tightened both markets significantly"

Zhengzhou Exchange Thermal Coal up 4.6% (YTD: 52.2%)
DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 4.0% (YTD: 104.9%)
DCE Iron Ore Continuation Month 1 up 3.9% (YTD: -18.0%)
SMM Lithium Metal Spot Price Daily up 2.6% (YTD: 63.9%)
Shanghai International Exchange TSR 20 up 2.2% (YTD: 10.1%)
CME Cattle(Feeder) up 2.0% (YTD: 11.7%)
SMM Rare Earth Terbium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 1.8% (YTD: 15.9%)
CBoT Soybean Oil up 1.6% (YTD: 30.8%)
CBoT Wheat up 1.6% (YTD: 6.9%)
SMM Rare Earth Dysprosium Iron Alloy Spot Price Daily up 1.5% (YTD: 38.0%)
CME Live Cattle up 1.5% (YTD: 9.9%)
SMM Rare Earth Dysprosium Metal Spot Price Daily up 1.5% (YTD: 39.2%)
SMM Rare Earth Dysprosium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 1.3% (YTD: 37.6%)
SHFE Bitumen Continuation Month 1 up 1.3% (YTD: 25.5%)
CBoT Corn up 1.3% (YTD: 3.9%)

Johnson Matthey Rhodium New York 0930 down -15.5% (YTD: -28.2%)
DCE Coke down -14.1% (YTD: 29.9%)
CME Random Length Lumber down -6.8% (YTD: -46.1%)
Palladium spot down -5.3% (YTD: -19.2%)
DCE RBD Palm Oil down -3.9% (YTD: 22.3%)
SHFE Nickel down -3.2% (YTD: 19.6%)
SHFE Aluminum down -2.8% (YTD: 45.6%)
Platinum spot down -2.1% (YTD: -12.0%)
Intercontinental Exchange European Union Allowance (EUA) Yearly down -2.0% (YTD: 82.9%)
EEX European-Carbon- Secondary Trading down -2.0% (YTD: 86.6%)
SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 down -1.6% (YTD: 0.9%)
SHFE Copper down -1.5% (YTD: 21.7%)
SHFE Stannum down -1.4% (YTD: 70.2%)
Commodities Exchange Center Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China (TSI) down -1.2% (YTD: -17.8%)
SHFE Zinc down -1.1% (YTD: 8.7%)

WTI crude front month unchanged at US$ 70.89 per barrel (YTD: +45.2%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent crude front month currently at US$ 74.03 per barrel, up 0.1% (YTD: +42.1%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Brent volatility at 28.6, up 0.7% (12-month range: 26.1 - 43.4)
Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) unchanged at US$ 177.45 per tonne (YTD: +120.4%)
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 5.28 per MMBtu, up 0.6% (YTD: +107.2%)
Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.18 per gallon, up 0.5% (YTD: +54.2%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) unchanged at US$ 617.75 per tonne(YTD: +46.2%)

Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.30 per pound, down -1.0% (YTD: +22.9%)
Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 805.00 per tonne, up 3.9% (YTD: -18.0%)
Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,260 per tonne, down -2.8% (YTD: +45.6%)
Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 148,000 per tonne, down -3.2% (YTD: +19.6%)
Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 14,630 per tonne, down -1.6% (YTD: +0.9%)
Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 5,400 per tonne, down -0.5% (YTD: +32.0%)
Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 256,500 per tonne, down -1.4% (YTD: +70.2%)
Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 22,510 per tonne, down -1.1% (YTD: +8.7%)
Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 375,000 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +36.9%)
Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 795,000 per tonne, up 2.6% (YTD: +63.9%)

Gold spot currently at US$ 1,802.91 per troy ounce, up 0.6% (YTD: -4.9%)
Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.15, down -0.3% (YTD: -21.7%)
Silver spot currently at US$ 23.80 per troy ounce, up 0.5% (YTD: -9.6%)
Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 21.76, down -1.2% (YTD: -46.9%)
Palladium spot currently at US$ 1,975.08 per troy ounce, down -5.3% (YTD: -19.2%)
Platinum spot currently at US$ 932.58 per troy ounce, down -2.1% (YTD: -12.0%)
Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 12,250 per troy ounce, down -15.5% (YTD: -28.2%)
Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 5,000 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: +92.3%)

Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 124.13 cents per pound, up 1.5% (YTD: +9.9%)
Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 80.38 cents per pound, down -0.5% (YTD: +14.4%)
Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.56 cents per hundredweight, up 0.8% (YTD: +8.3%)
Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,286.25 cents per bushel, up 0.3% (YTD: -2.9%)
Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 523.25 cents per bushel, up 1.3% (YTD: +3.9%)
Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 698.75 cents per bushel, up 1.6% (YTD: +6.9%)
Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 18.96 cents per pound, down -0.1% (YTD: +22.4%)
Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 94.96 cents per pound, up 0.6% (YTD: +21.6%)
Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,696 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +3.6%)
Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 4,405 per tonne, down -0.7% (YTD: +39.2%)
Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 471.00 per 1,000 board feet, down -6.8% (YTD: -46.1%)
TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,005 per tonne, up 2.2% (YTD: +10.1%)
Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 56.89 cents per pound, up 1.6% (YTD: +30.8%)
Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 4,631 per tonne, up 0.3% (YTD: +19.0%)

Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 4,163, up 7.7% (YTD: +204.8%)
Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 20,586, unchanged (YTD: +390.2%)
Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 927, up 2.2% (YTD: +79.1%)
Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 554, up 11.9% (YTD: +52.6%)
Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 6,860, down -0.1% (YTD: +267.0%)
Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,299, unchanged (YTD: +152.5%)
Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,501, unchanged (YTD: +9.1%)
Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 5,622, unchanged (YTD: +232.3%)

Freightos Indices | Sources: phipost.com, Freightos data

EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 59.85 per tonne, down -2.0% (YTD: +82.9%)

EUA Front-Month Futures | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data