Commodities

Not A Great Week For Commodities, With The Main Losers Being Thermal Coal (Chinese Government Actions) And Base Metals (Weaker Than Expected Macro Data)

The current level of backwardation in Brent oil prices is one that has historically led to a reversion, usually through the physical market / front-month futures prices coming down

Published ET

Brent Crude Oil Front-Month Futures Prices & Calendar Spread 1m-7m | Source: Refinitiv

Brent Crude Oil Front-Month Futures Prices & Calendar Spread 1m-7m | Source: Refinitiv


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NOTABLE GAINERS THIS WEEK

  • SMM Erbium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 23.5% (YTD: 112.6%), now at 355,000.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Gadolinium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 15.7% (YTD: 86.8%), now at 332,500.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Carbonate Domestic Spot Price Daily up 11.7% (YTD: 152.7%), now at 57,500.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Neodymium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 11.3% (YTD: 45.1%), now at 740,000.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Praseodymium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 10.2% (YTD: 108.3%), now at 755,000.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Praseodymium Neodymium Alloy Spot Price Daily up 9.7% (YTD: 71.4%), now at 875,000.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Terbium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 9.1% (YTD: 36.6%), now at 9,900.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Neodymium Metal Spot Price Daily up 8.5% (YTD: 43.8%), now at 895,000.00
  • ICE-US Cotton No. 2 up 6.1% (YTD: 47.0%), now at 115.14
  • CBoT Corn up 5.6% (YTD: 17.4%), now at 568.25
  • Coffee Robusta Vietnam Grade 1 Wet Pol spot up 4.6% (YTD: 38.2%), now at 1,912.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Dysprosium Oxide Spot Price Daily up 4.6% (YTD: 47.7%), now at 2,865.00
  • SHFE Bitumen Continuation Month 1 up 4.2% (YTD: 29.8%), now at 3,070.00
  • Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil up 4.1% (YTD: 38.8%), now at 5,436.00
  • SMM Rare Earth Dysprosium Iron Alloy Spot Price Daily up 3.8% (YTD: 47.9%), now at 2,840,000.00

Cotton #2 Front-Month Futures Prices | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE LOSERS THIS WEEK

  • Zhengzhou Exchange Thermal Coal down -31.4% (YTD: 47.4%), now at 1,100.00
  • Baltic Exchange Capesize Index down -29.9% (YTD: 116.8%), now at 4,349.00
  • Baltic Exchange Dry Index down -20.2% (YTD: 157.6%), now at 3,519.00
  • Baltic Exchange Supramax Index down -13.4% (YTD: 198.7%), now at 3,104.00
  • CME Random Length Lumber down -11.4% (YTD: -32.2%), now at 591.60
  • Baltic Exchange Panamax Index down -10.0% (YTD: 194.0%), now at 3,896.00
  • SHFE Aluminium down -7.9% (YTD: 29.1%), now at 20,450.00
  • DCE Iron Ore Continuation Month 1 down -6.8% (YTD: -40.5%), now at 641.50
  • SHFE Stannum (Tin) down -4.9% (YTD: 79.0%), now at 286,950.00
  • DCE Coke down -4.8% (YTD: 38.3%), now at 4,000.00
  • SHFE Hot Rolled Coil down -4.8% (YTD: 14.8%), now at 5,213.00
  • Shanghai International Exchange Bonded Copper down -4.6% (YTD: 20.3%), now at 62,090.00
  • SHFE Zinc down -4.3% (YTD: 13.4%), now at 24,320.00
  • Baltic Exchange Handysize Index down -4.1% (YTD: 191.3%), now at 1,972.00
  • SHFE Rebar down -4.1% (YTD: 13.9%), now at 4,735.00

NET POSITIONS OF MANAGED MONEY (WEEKLY CFTC REPORT)

ENERGY

  • Light Sweet Crude reduced net long position
  • Ice Brent reduced net long position
  • Gasoline RBOB increased net long position
  • No.2 Heating Oil increased net long position
  • Ice Gasoil increased net long position
  • Henry Hub Ice reduced net long position

METALS

  • Gold increased net long position
  • Silver increased net long position
  • Platinum increased net long position
  • Palladium increased net short position
  • Copper-Grade#1 reduced net long position

AGRICULTURE

  • Wheat reduced net short position
  • Corn increased net long position
  • Rough Rice reduced net long position
  • Oats reduced net long position
  • Soybeans increased net long position
  • Soybean Oil increased net long position
  • Soybean Meal reduced net short position
  • Lean Hogs reduced net long position
  • Live Cattle reduced net long position
  • Feeder Cattle increased net short position
  • Cocoa reduced net long position
  • Coffee C increased net long position
  • Robusta Coffee increased net long position
  • Frozen Orange Juice increased net short position
  • Sugar No.11 reduced net long position
  • White Sugar reduced net long position
S&P GSCI Sub Indices This Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataS&P GSCI Equal-Weighted Total Return Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

ENERGY DOWN THIS WEEK

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 83.57 per barrel, down -0.2% (YTD: +72.2%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 83.72 per barrel, down -1.3% (YTD: +62.9%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 154.90 per tonne, down -2.8% (YTD: +177.6%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 5.43 per MMBtu, up 2.8% (YTD: +113.7%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.37 per gallon, down -0.8% (YTD: +74.8%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 718.50 per tonne, down -1.9% (YTD: +70.8%)
GSCI Energy | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataWTI, Brent 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS FELL HARD THIS WEEK

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.38 per pound, down -3.3% (YTD: +24.5%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 641.50 per tonne, down -6.8% (YTD: -40.5%)
  • Aluminium (Shanghai) currently at CNY 20,450 per tonne, down -7.9% (YTD: +29.1%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 146,580 per tonne, down -4.0% (YTD: +17.5%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,715 per tonne, down -0.7% (YTD: +7.3%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,735 per tonne, down -4.1% (YTD: +13.9%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 286,950 per tonne, down -4.9% (YTD: +79.0%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 24,320 per tonne, down -4.3% (YTD: +13.4%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 404,000 per tonne, up 1.3% (YTD: +47.4%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 955,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +96.9%)
GSCI Base Metals This Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataLME Base Metals 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

PRECIOUS METALS DOWN THIS WEEK

  • Gold spot currently at US$ 1,782.81 per troy ounce, down -0.5% (YTD: -6.0%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.83, down -0.6% (YTD: -17.8%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 23.88 per troy ounce, down -1.8% (YTD: -9.4%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 23.10, down -1.9% (YTD: -42.7%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,004.69 per troy ounce, down -0.8% (YTD: -18.0%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,018.31 per troy ounce, down -2.1% (YTD: -4.7%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 14,100 per troy ounce, up 0.7% (YTD: -17.3%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 4,500 per troy ounce, down -2.2% (YTD: +73.1%)
GSCI Precious Metals This Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataGold, Silver 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGS MOSTLY ROSE THIS WEEK, LED BY COTTON AND CORN

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 129.28 cents per pound, up 2.6% (YTD: +12.8%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 76.08 cents per pound, up 3.8% (YTD: +8.3%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 13.28 cents per hundredweight, down -1.7% (YTD: +7.1%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,235.50 cents per bushel, up 1.2% (YTD: -6.0%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 568.25 cents per bushel, up 5.6% (YTD: +17.4%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 772.75 cents per bushel, up 2.2% (YTD: +20.6%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 19.27 cents per pound, up 1.0% (YTD: +24.4%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 115.14 cents per pound, up 6.1% (YTD: +47.0%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,548 per tonne, down -1.5% (YTD: -2.3%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 4,881 per tonne, up 0.1% (YTD: +54.2%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 591.60 per 1,000 board feet, down -11.4% (YTD: -32.2%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,420 per tonne, up 0.1% (YTD: +17.6%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 61.26 cents per pound, down -1.3% (YTD: +41.4%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 5,436 per tonne, up 4.1% (YTD: +38.8%)
GSCI Agriculture | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataAGS 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING THIS WEEK

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 3,519, down -20.2% (YTD: +157.6%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 19,478, up 20.6% (YTD: +363.8%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,083, up 1.8% (YTD: +109.2%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 397, unchanged (YTD: +9.4%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 7,238, up 0.8% (YTD: +287.3%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,259, up 0.1% (YTD: +151.8%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,332, unchanged (YTD: -3.1%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 5,558, unchanged (YTD: +228.5%)
Freightos Shipping Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataBaltic Exchange Dry Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA futures front month (European Energy Exchange) currently at EUR 58.71 per tonne, up 0.8% (YTD: +79.4%)

CO2 EUA Front-Month Futures Prices | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data