WHY MANY ON THE SELL-SIDE NOW SEE HIGHER CRUDE PRICES

• Some of the largest brokers on Wall Street are forecasting much higher prices for crude oil: BofA Merrill sees Brent at $120 / bbl in mid-2022, while Goldman Sachs has a target of $105 / bbl 
• Demand for energy commodities is resilient: the latest IEA report sees global demand on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels this year
• Supply is proving much less abundant and elastic than initially thought
• OPEC+ producers are struggling / failing to reach their allocated quotas (Russia for example)
• The focus of politicians and financiers on ESG and decarbonization has made investments in traditional energy more difficult, much riskier and less profitable (with higher costs and a shorter payback period)

• In this context, shale producers have proven much more prudent than in the past and have not materially increased their supply despite the much higher price.
• In short, the swing producers are waiting it out: they see that the lack of investments over the past years could bring much higher prices (why sell now, when there's potentially a nice squeeze ahead).

NOTABLE GAINERS THIS WEEK

• Palladium spot up 12.0% (YTD: 7.2%), now at 2,106.13
• CME Lean Hogs up 10.7% (YTD: 4.2%), now at 86.20
• SHFE Bitumen Continuation Month 1 up 8.9% (YTD: 11.3%), now at 3,546.00
• SHFE Nickel up 8.8% (YTD: 17.1%), now at 180,780.00
• CBoT Soybean Oil up 8.3% (YTD: 12.8%), now at 63.00
• DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 6.2% (YTD: 19.3%), now at 2,575.00
• Platinum spot up 6.2% (YTD: 7.0%), now at 1,029.50
• Silver spot up 5.8% (YTD: 5.4%), now at 24.27
• CBoT Rough Rice up 5.6% (YTD: 1.9%), now at 14.85
• CBoT Corn up 4.9% (YTD: 3.4%), now at 616.25
• ICE-US Sugar No. 11 up 4.5% (YTD: 0.6%), now at 18.89
• CBoT Wheat up 4.5% (YTD: 0.0%), now at 780.00
• Crude Oil WTI Cushing US FOB up 3.9% (YTD: 10.8%), now at 85.11
• SHFE Stannum up 3.7% (YTD: 10.9%), now at 331,260.00
• NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) up 3.7% (YTD: 10.6%), now at 85.14

NOTABLE LOSERS THIS WEEK

• Baltic Exchange Capesize Index down -40.4% (YTD: -62.1%), now at 891.00
• Baltic Exchange Dry Index down -19.8% (YTD: -36.2%), now at 1,415.00
• Baltic Exchange Panamax Index down -15.4% (YTD: -20.1%), now at 2,010.00
• Baltic Exchange Supramax Index down -7.8% (YTD: -24.1%), now at 1,749.00
• Baltic Exchange Handysize Index down -7.5% (YTD: -25.4%), now at 1,103.00
• CBoT Soybean Meal down -7.3% (YTD: -5.1%), now at 392.70
• Baltic Clean Tank Index down -7.1% (YTD: -30.5%), now at 551.00
• CME Random Length Lumber down -6.9% (YTD: -1.2%), now at 1,143.70
• NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas down -6.3% (YTD: 12.3%), now at 04.00
• CME Cattle (Feeder) down -1.6% (YTD: -3.6%), now at 160.28
• ICE-US Cocoa down -1.3% (YTD: 0.7%), now at 2,591.00
• Johnson Matthey Iridium New York 0930 down -1.3% (YTD: -1.3%), now at 3,950.00
• SHFE Copper down -1.0% (YTD: 1.8%), now at 71,130.00
• Baltic Dirty Tank Index down -0.9% (YTD: -12.2%), now at 692.00
• SHFE Rubber down -0.8% (YTD: 0.3%), now at 14,285.00

NET POSITIONS OF MANAGED MONEY (WEEKLY CFTC REPORT)

ENERGY

• Light Sweet Crude increased net long position
• ICE Brent reduced net long position
• Gasoline RBOB increased net long position
• No.2 Heating Oil increased net long position
• ICE Gasoil increased net long position
• Henry Hub Ice increased net long position

METALS

• Gold reduced net long position
• Silver increased net long position
• Platinum reduced net short position
• Palladium increased net short position
• Copper-Grade#1 increased net long position

AGRICULTURE

• Wheat reduced net short position
• Corn reduced net long position
• Rough Rice reduced net long position
• Oats reduced net long position
• Soybeans reduced net long position
• Soybean Oil increased net long position
• Soybean Meal reduced net long position
• Lean Hogs reduced net long position
• Live Cattle increased net long position
• Feeder Cattle reduced net long position
• Cocoa increased net long position
• Coffee C increased net long position
• Robusta Coffee reduced net long position
• Frozen Orange Juice increased net long position
• Sugar No.11 reduced net long position
• White Sugar increased net long position

ENERGY THIS WEEK

• WTI crude front month currently at US$ 85.14 per barrel, up 3.7% (YTD: +10.6%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
• Brent crude front month currently at US$ 87.89 per barrel, up 2.1% (YTD: +10.8%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
• Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 224.60 per tonne, up 3.6% (YTD: +32.0%)
• Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 4.00 per MMBtu, down -6.3% (YTD: +12.3%)
• Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.44 per gallon, up 2.4% (YTD: +6.3%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
• Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 769.25 per tonne, up 2.7% (YTD: +13.5%)

BASE METALS THIS WEEK

• Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.52 per pound, down -0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)
• Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 768.50 per tonne, up 3.0% (YTD: +10.8%)
• Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 21,210 per tonne, down -0.1% (YTD: +6.2%)
• Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 180,780 per tonne, up 8.8% (YTD: +17.1%)
• Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,760 per tonne, up 1.9% (YTD: +2.1%)
• Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,737 per tonne, up 2.2% (YTD: +3.8%)
• Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 331,260 per tonne, up 3.7% (YTD: +10.9%)
• Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 25,015 per tonne, up 1.7% (YTD: +5.0%)
• Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 500,000 per tonne, unchanged (YTD: +2.7%)
• Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 1,865,000 per tonne, up 16.2% (YTD: +39.7%)

PRECIOUS METALS THIS WEEK

• Gold spot currently at US$ 1,834.20 per troy ounce, up 0.9% (YTD: +1.1%)
• Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.23, up 2.1% (YTD: -3.5%)
• Silver spot currently at US$ 24.27 per troy ounce, up 5.8% (YTD: +5.4%)
• Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 22.69, up 2.7% (YTD: -0.1%)
• Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,106.13 per troy ounce, up 12.0% (YTD: +7.2%)
• Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,029.50 per troy ounce, up 6.2% (YTD: +7.0%)
• Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 16,650 per troy ounce, up 1.5% (YTD: +18.1%)
• Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 3,950 per troy ounce, down -1.3% (YTD: -1.3%)

AGS THIS WEEK

• Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 137.93 cents per pound, up 0.7% (YTD: -0.8%)
• Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 86.20 cents per pound, up 10.7% (YTD: +4.2%)
• Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 14.85 cents per hundredweight, up 5.6% (YTD: +1.9%)
• Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,414.25 cents per bushel, up 3.6% (YTD: +6.5%)
• Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 616.25 cents per bushel, up 4.9% (YTD: +3.4%)
• Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 780.00 cents per bushel, up 4.5% (YTD: +0.0%)
• Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 18.89 cents per pound, up 4.5% (YTD: +0.6%)
• Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 121.08 cents per pound, up 3.3% (YTD: +5.6%)
• Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,591 per tonne, down -1.3% (YTD: +0.7%)
• Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 5,816 per tonne, up 3.5% (YTD: +5.6%)
• Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 1,143.70 per 1,000 board feet, down -6.9% (YTD: -1.2%)
• TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,505 per tonne, up 0.9% (YTD: +2.3%)
• Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 63.00 cents per pound, up 8.3% (YTD: +12.8%)
• Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 5,504 per tonne, up 3.3% (YTD: +6.9%)

SHIPPING THIS WEEK

• Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 1,415, down -19.8% (YTD: -36.2%)
• Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 15,171, up 3.3% (YTD: +10.7%)
• Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,101, unchanged (YTD: +25.8%)
• Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 563, up 25.7% (YTD: +4.3%)
• Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 7,436, up 9.8% (YTD: +4.7%)
• Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 15,061, up 5.6% (YTD: +6.0%)
• Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,014, unchanged (YTD: -10.3%)
• Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 8,411, down -1.4% (YTD: +7.7%)

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

• EUA front-month future (ICE) currently at EUR 84.47 per tonne, up 2.9% (YTD: +5.4%)