Commodities

Energy Was The Big Story Again This Week In Commodities, With Brent Spot Above $90 And Nat Gas Up 16%

The failure of many countries OPEC+ to meet their quotas, combined with the slow / patient approach of shale producers is driving backwardation to levels where the back end of the curve will have to start catching up ($25/bbl spread between spot Brent Sullom Voe and December 2025 future)

Published ET

Brent Crude Spot Price And December 2024 Calendar Spread | Source: Refinitiv

Brent Crude Spot Price And December 2024 Calendar Spread | Source: Refinitiv

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NOTABLE GAINERS THIS WEEK

  • Baltic Exchange Capesize Index up 20.7% (YTD: -54.3%), now at 1,075.00
  • NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas up 16.0% (YTD: 30.3%), now at 04.64

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Prices | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

  • Palladium spot up 12.8% (YTD: 21.0%), now at 2,376.18
  • DCE Coking Coal Continuation Month 1 up 7.7% (YTD: 28.5%), now at 2,658.00
  • EEX EEX European Union Aviation Allowance Continuation Month 1 up 5.7% (YTD: 11.3%), now at 89.14
  • Intercontinental Exchange Endex European Union Allowance (EUA) Yearly up 5.6% (YTD: 11.3%), now at 89.22
  • EEX European-Carbon- Secondary Trading up 5.6% (YTD: 11.6%), now at 89.39
  • DCE Iron Ore Continuation Month 1 up 5.5% (YTD: 16.8%), now at 801.50
  • Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil up 5.4% (YTD: 12.7%), now at 5,810.00
  • DCE RBD Palm Oil up 5.0% (YTD: 17.5%), now at 11,042.00
  • CBoT Soybean Meal up 4.7% (YTD: -0.6%), now at 411.20
  • DCE Coke up 4.5% (YTD: 11.4%), now at 3,250.00
  • ICE Europe Low Sulphur Gasoil up 4.3% (YTD: 18.3%), now at 802.00
  • NYMEX RBOB Gasoline up 4.1% (YTD: 10.7%), now at 02.54
  • CBoT Soybeans up 3.9% (YTD: 10.7%), now at 1,470.00

NOTABLE LOSERS THIS WEEK

  • CME Random Length Lumber down -10.4% (YTD: -11.5%), now at 1,024.90
  • Baltic Exchange Supramax Index down -8.7% (YTD: -30.7%), now at 1,597.00
  • Baltic Exchange Panamax Index down -8.5% (YTD: -26.8%), now at 1,840.00
  • Baltic Exchange Handysize Index down -8.3% (YTD: -31.6%), now at 1,011.00
  • Silver spot down -7.5% (YTD: -2.5%), now at 22.45
  • SHFE Nickel down -5.3% (YTD: 10.9%), now at 167,300.00
  • COMEX Copper down -4.6% (YTD: -1.9%), now at 04.32
  • SHFE Rubber down -4.2% (YTD: -3.9%), now at 13,945.00
  • ICE-US Sugar No. 11 down -3.7% (YTD: -3.1%), now at 18.22
  • ICE-US Cocoa down -3.2% (YTD: -2.5%), now at 2,496.00
  • Coffee Robusta Vietnam Grade 1 Wet Pol spot down -2.9% (YTD: -12.2%), now at 1,908.00
  • BALTIC EXCH DRY down -2.4% (YTD: -37.8%), now at 1,381.00
  • Gold spot down -2.3% (YTD: -1.3%), now at 1,791.29
  • SHFE Lead Continuation Month 1 down -2.3% (YTD: -0.3%), now at 15,255.00
  • WUXI Metal Cobalt Bi-Monthly down -2.0% (YTD: 0.5%), now at 489.00
S&P GSCI Sub-Indices This Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataS&P GSCI Equal Weight Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

NET POSITIONS OF MANAGED MONEY (WEEKLY CFTC REPORT)

ENERGY

  • Light Sweet Crude reduced net long position
  • Ice Brent reduced net long position
  • Gasoline RBOB reduced net long position
  • No.2 Heating Oil increased net long position
  • Ice Gasoil increased net long position
  • Henry Hub Ice reduced net long position

ICE Brent Net Spec Positioning | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

METALS

  • Gold increased net long position
  • Silver increased net long position
  • Platinum turned to net long
  • Palladium reduced net short position
  • Copper-Grade#1 increased net long position

AGRICULTURE

  • Wheat reduced net short position
  • Corn increased net long position
  • Rough Rice increased net long position
  • Oats reduced net long position
  • Soybeans increased net long position
  • Soybean Oil increased net long position
  • Soybean Meal reduced net long position
  • Lean Hogs increased net long position
  • Live Cattle reduced net long position
  • Feeder Cattle reduced net long position
  • Cocoa reduced net long position
  • Coffee C reduced net long position
  • Robusta Coffee reduced net long position
  • Frozen Orange Juice increased net long position
  • Sugar No.11 increased net long position
  • White Sugar increased net long position

ENERGY UP BROADLY THIS WEEK

  • WTI crude front month currently at US$ 86.82 per barrel, up 2.0% (YTD: +12.8%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Brent crude front month currently at US$ 90.03 per barrel, up 2.4% (YTD: +13.5%); 6-month term structure in widening backwardation
  • Newcastle Coal (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 226.25 per tonne, up 1.4% (YTD: +33.8%)
  • Natural Gas (Henry Hub) currently at US$ 4.64 per MMBtu, up 16.0% (YTD: +30.3%)
  • Gasoline (NYMEX) currently at US$ 2.54 per gallon, up 4.1% (YTD: +10.7%); 6-month term structure in tightening backwardation
  • Low Sulphur Gasoil (ICE Europe) currently at US$ 802.00 per tonne, up 4.3% (YTD: +18.3%)
GSCI Energy | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataWTI, Brent 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

BASE METALS MOSTLY DOWN THIS WEEK

  • Copper (COMEX) currently at US$ 4.32 per pound, down -4.6% (YTD: -1.9%)
  • Iron Ore (Dalian Commodity Exchange) currently at CNY 801.50 per tonne, up 5.5% (YTD: +16.8%)
  • Aluminum (Shanghai) currently at CNY 21,625 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +6.9%)
  • Nickel (Shanghai) currently at CNY 167,300 per tonne, down -5.3% (YTD: +10.9%)
  • Lead (Shanghai) currently at CNY 15,255 per tonne, down -2.3% (YTD: -0.3%)
  • Rebar (Shanghai) currently at CNY 4,778 per tonne, up 0.7% (YTD: +4.6%)
  • Tin (Shanghai) currently at CNY 331,280 per tonne, down -0.4% (YTD: +10.5%)
  • Zinc (Shanghai) currently at CNY 25,250 per tonne, up 0.3% (YTD: +5.3%)
  • Refined Cobalt (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 499,000 per tonne, down -0.2% (YTD: +2.5%)
  • Lithium (Shanghai) spot price currently at CNY 1,930,000 per tonne, up 3.5% (YTD: +44.6%)
GSCI Base Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataLME Base Metals 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

PRECIOUS METALS FELL THIS WEEK

  • Gold spot currently at US$ 1,791.29 per troy ounce, down -2.3% (YTD: -1.3%)
  • Gold 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 12.79, up 4.2% (YTD: +0.6%)
  • Silver spot currently at US$ 22.45 per troy ounce, down -7.5% (YTD: -2.5%)
  • Silver 1-Month ATM implied volatility currently at 23.23, up 2.2% (YTD: +2.1%)
  • Palladium spot currently at US$ 2,376.18 per troy ounce, up 12.8% (YTD: +21.0%)
  • Platinum spot currently at US$ 1,011.25 per troy ounce, down -1.8% (YTD: +5.1%)
  • Rhodium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 16,850 per troy ounce, up 1.2% (YTD: +19.5%)
  • Iridium (Johnson Matthey, New York 09:30) currently at US$ 3,950 per troy ounce, unchanged (YTD: -1.3%)
GSCI Precious Metals | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataSilver, Gold 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

AGS MIXED THIS WEEK

  • Live Cattle (CME) currently at US$ 138.70 cents per pound, up 0.6% (YTD: -0.3%)
  • Lean Hogs (CME) currently at US$ 87.93 cents per pound, up 2.0% (YTD: +6.3%)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT) currently at US$ 14.98 cents per hundredweight, up 0.8% (YTD: +2.7%)
  • Soybeans Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 1,470.00 cents per bushel, up 3.9% (YTD: +10.7%)
  • Corn (CBOT) currently at US$ 636.00 cents per bushel, up 3.2% (YTD: +6.7%)
  • Wheat Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 786.25 cents per bushel, up 0.8% (YTD: +0.8%)
  • Sugar No.11 (ICE US) currently at US$ 18.22 cents per pound, down -3.7% (YTD: -3.1%)
  • Cotton No.2 (ICE US) currently at US$ 123.56 cents per pound, up 2.5% (YTD: +8.2%)
  • Cocoa (ICE US) currently at US$ 2,496 per tonne, down -3.2% (YTD: -2.5%)
  • Coffee Arabica (Colombia Excelso) currently at EUR 5,732 per tonne, down -1.5% (YTD: +4.0%)
  • Random Length Lumber (CME) currently at US$ 1,024.90 per 1,000 board feet, down -10.4% (YTD: -11.5%)
  • TSR 20 Rubber (Shanghai) currently at CNY 11,505 per tonne, down -2.0% (YTD: +0.3%)
  • Soybean Oil Composite (CBOT) currently at US$ 65.27 cents per pound, up 3.6% (YTD: +16.9%)
  • Crude Palm Oil (Bursa Malaysia) currently at MYR 5,810 per tonne, up 5.4% (YTD: +12.7%)
GSCI Agriculture this Week | Sources: ϕpost, FactSet dataAgriculture 1-Month ATM Implied Vols | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

SHIPPING THIS WEEK

  • Baltic Dry Index (Baltic Exchange) currently at 1,381, down -2.4% (YTD: -37.8%)
  • Freightos China To North America West Coast Container Index currently at 15,485, up 2.1% (YTD: +13.0%)
  • Freightos North America West Coast To China Container Index currently at 1,086, down -1.4% (YTD: +24.1%)
  • Freightos North America East Coast To Europe Container Index currently at 442, down -21.5% (YTD: -18.1%)
  • Freightos Europe To North America East Coast Container Index currently at 7,232, down -2.7% (YTD: +1.9%)
  • Freightos China To North Europe Container Index currently at 14,751, down -2.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
  • Freightos North Europe To China Container Index currently at 1,054, up 3.9% (YTD: -6.7%)
  • Freightos Europe To South America West Coast Container Index currently at 8,411, unchanged (YTD: +7.7%)
Baltic Dry Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataFreightos Container Shipping Indices | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

CARBON EMISSION ALLOWANCES (CO2)

  • EUA front-month future (ICE) currently at EUR 89.22 per tonne, up 5.6% (YTD: +11.3%)

CO2 EUA Front Month Futures | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data