The Dollar Ends The Week Weaker As US Rates Drop Back

The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms that speculators have increased their net short US$ positioning

Published May 14, 2021 5:48 PM ET

US Dollar Index Intraday | Source: Refinitiv

QUICK SUMMARY

The US Dollar Index is down -0.5% at 90.3
Euro up 0.5% at 1.2140 (YTD: -0.6%)
Yen up 0.1% at 109.34 (YTD: -5.6%)
Onshore Yuan up 0.2% at 6.4367 (YTD: +1.4%)
Swiss franc up 0.5% at 0.9011 (YTD: -1.8%)
Sterling up 0.3% at 1.4096 (YTD: +3.1%)
Canadian dollar up 0.5% at 1.2102 (YTD: +5.2%)
Australian dollar up 0.6% at 0.7772 (YTD: +1.0%)
NZ dollar up 1.2% at 0.7254 (YTD: +1.0%)

MACRO DATA RELEASES

Chile, Policy Rates, Monetary Policy Interest Rate for May 2021 (Central Bank, Chile) at 0.50%, in line with consensus (prior 0.50%)
Colombia, GDP, Change Y/Y for Q1 2021 (DANE, Colombia) at 1.10%, above consensus estimate of -1.0%
Poland, CPI, Change P/P, Price Index for Apr 2021 (CSO, Poland) at 0.80%, above consensus of 0.70%
Poland, CPI, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Apr 2021 (CSO, Poland) at 4.30%, in line with consensus
United States, Production, Change P/P for Apr 2021 (FED, U.S.) at 0.70%, below consensus estimate of 1.0%
United States, Retail Sales, Total including food services, Change P/P for Apr 2021 (U.S. Census Bureau) at 0.00%, below consensus estimate of 1.0%
United States, University of Michigan, Total-prelim, Volume Index for May 2021 (UMICH, Survey) at 82.80, below consensus estimate of 90.4

RATES SPREADS

VOLATILITIES

Deutsche Bank USD Currency Volatility Index currently at 6.47, down -0.19 on the day (YTD: -0.82)
Euro 1-Month At-The-Money Implied Volatility currently at 5.55, down -0.2 on the day (YTD: -1.4)
Japanese Yen 1M ATM IV currently at 5.23, down -0.4 on the day (YTD: -0.9)
Offshore Yuan 1M ATM IV currently at 3.85, down -0.2 on the day (YTD: -1.8)

NOTABLE MOVES IN SOVEREIGN CDS

Spain (rated A-): up 1.1 basis points to 36 bp (1Y range: 29-112bp)
Malaysia (rated BBB+): down 1.1 basis points to 46 bp (1Y range: 33-109bp)
State of Qatar (rated AA-): down 1.5 basis points to 43 bp (1Y range: 33-108bp)
Indonesia (rated BBB): down 2.0 basis points to 77 bp (1Y range: 66-200bp)
Mexico (rated BBB-): down 3.0 basis points to 92 bp (1Y range: 79-242bp)
Saudi Arabia (rated A): down 3.3 basis points to 62 bp (1Y range: 53-156bp)
Peru (rated BBB+): down 4.0 basis points to 79 bp (1Y range: 52-106bp)
South Africa (rated BB-): down 6.2 basis points to 202 bp (1Y range: 197-407bp)
Turkey (rated BB-): down 9.4 basis points to 402 bp (1Y range: 282-621bp)
Argentina (rated CCC): down 44.8 basis points to 1,923 bp (1Y range: 1,049-14,175bp)

WEEKLY COT REPORT

NOTABLE OTHER MOVERS TODAY

CFA Franc BEAC up 3.5% (YTD: +2.0%)
Cape Verde Escudo up 2.8% (YTD: +2.8%)
Aruba florin up 2.2% (YTD: +2.2%)
Colombian Peso up 1.8% (YTD: -7.0%)
Seychelles rupee down 2.1% (YTD: +35.8%)
Nicaragua Cordoba down 2.3% (YTD: -2.3%)
Eritrean Nakfa down 2.7% (YTD: -2.7%)
Haiti Gourde down 3.6% (YTD: -18.8%)
Venezuela Bolivar down 5.7% (YTD: -63.3%)
Nigerian Naira down 8.1% (YTD: -8.0%)

YTD BIGGEST WINNERS & LOSERS