FX

Dollar Edges Down, FX 1-Week Realized Volatility Up

A slew of mixed data releases today, with rates differentials between currencies moving mostly in the US$ favor

Published ET

EUR, JPY 1-Week Realized Volatility | Source: Refinitiv

EUR, JPY 1-Week Realized Volatility | Source: Refinitiv


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QUICK SUMMARY

  • The US Dollar Index is down -0.1% at 90.0
  • Euro unchanged at 1.2191 (YTD: -0.2%)
  • Yen down 0.6% at 109.84 (YTD: -6.0%)
  • Onshore Yuan up 0.1% at 6.3824 (YTD: +2.3%)
  • Swiss franc up 0.1% at 0.8971 (YTD: -1.3%)
  • Sterling up 0.6% at 1.4203 (YTD: +3.9%)
  • Canadian dollar up 0.4% at 1.2069 (YTD: +5.5%)
  • Australian dollar unchanged at 0.7741 (YTD: +0.6%)
  • NZ dollar up 0.0% unchanged (YTD: +1.4%)

MACRO DATA RELEASES

  • Australia, Private New Capital Expenditure, All industries, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (AU Bureau of Stat) at 6.30, above consensus estimate of 2.00
  • Japan, CPI, Tokyo, All Items, General, Change Y/Y for May 2021 (MIC, Japan) at -0.40
  • Japan, CPI, Tokyo, All Items, Less fresh food, Change Y/Y for May 2021 (MIC, Japan) at -0.20, in line with consensus
  • Japan, Labor Market, Active opening rate for Apr 2021 (JILPT, Japan) at 1.09, below consensus estimate of 1.10
  • Japan, Unemployment, Rate for Apr 2021 (MIC, Japan) at 2.80, above consensus estimate of 2.70
  • South Korea, Policy Rates, Base Rate for May 2021 (The Bank of Korea) at 0.50, in line with consensus
  • United States, GDP, Total-2nd Estimate, Change P/P for Q1 2021 (BEA, US Dept. Of Com) at 6.40, below consensus estimate of 6.50
  • United States, Jobless Claims, National, Initial for W 22 May (U.S. Dept. of Labor) at 406.00, below consensus estimate of 425.00
  • United States, Manufacturers New Orders, Durable goods total, Change P/P for Apr 2021 (U.S. Census Bureau) at -1.30, below consensus estimate of 0.70
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

RATES SPREADS

  • 5Y German-US interest rates spread 0.9 bp wider, negative for the Euro
  • 5Y Japan-US rates spread 3.7 bp wider, negative for the Yen
  • 5Y Chinese-US rates spread 2.6 bp tighter, negative for the Yuan
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

OPTIONS IMPLIED VOLATILITIES

  • Deutsche Bank USD Currency Volatility Index currently at 6.29, unchanged on the day (YTD: -1.00)
  • Euro 1-Month At-The-Money Implied Volatility currently at 5.68, unchanged (YTD: -1.2)
  • Japanese Yen 1M ATM IV currently at 5.54, up 0.1 on the day (YTD: -0.5)
  • Offshore Yuan 1M ATM IV currently at 4.54, unchanged (YTD: -1.1)
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv dataSources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE MOVES IN SOVEREIGN CDS

  • Nigeria (rated B): down 4.0 basis points to 356 bp (1Y range: 333-383bp)
  • Mexico (rated BBB-): down 1.1 basis points to 93 bp (1Y range: 79-172bp)
  • Pakistan (rated B-): down 4.5 basis points to 392 bp (1Y range: 362-512bp)
  • Ecuador (rated WD): down 2.0 basis points to 168 bp (1Y range: 157-181bp)
  • Government of Chile (rated A-): down 1.0 basis points to 68 bp (1Y range: 43-87bp)
  • Argentina (rated CCC): down 27.0 basis points to 1,849 bp (1Y range: 1,049-6,788bp)
  • Panama (rated BBB-): down 1.1 basis points to 70 bp (1Y range: 44-115bp)
  • Russia (rated BBB): down 1.6 basis points to 95 bp (1Y range: 72-129bp)
  • Brazil (rated BB-): down 3.0 basis points to 172 bp (1Y range: 141-275bp)
  • Slovenia (rated A): down 1.0 basis points to 51 bp (1Y range: 47-55bp)
Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

NOTABLE OTHER MOVERS TODAY

  • Haiti Gourde up 2.1% (YTD: -19.1%)
  • Georgian Lari up 1.5% (YTD: +0.8%)
  • Brazilian Real up 1.4% (YTD: -0.9%)
  • Jamaican Dollar up 1.2% (YTD: -3.9%)
  • Chilean Peso up 0.7% (YTD: -1.9%)
  • Turkish Lira down 0.7% (YTD: -12.6%)
  • North Macedonian denar down 1.0% (YTD: -0.5%)
  • Qatari Riyal down 1.6% (YTD: -1.6%)
  • Mauritania ouguiya down 1.9% (YTD: 0.0%)
  • Ethiopian Birr down 2.3% (YTD: -10.2%)