US Dollar Down Against Most Major Currencies On Soft Macro Data And Lower Real Yields

Risk reversals in options markets are not showing any clear direction, with currencies trading in a fairly tight range at the moment

Published Jul 26, 2021 5:35 PM ET

US Dollar in Euro And 10Y Real Rates Differential | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data

The US Dollar Index is down -0.28% at 92.64 (YTD: +2.95%)
Euro up 0.24% at 1.1799 (YTD: -3.4%)
Yen up 0.18% at 110.37 (YTD: -6.4%)
Onshore Yuan down 0.02% at 6.4825 (YTD: +0.7%)
Swiss franc up 0.37% at 0.9159 (YTD: -3.3%)
Sterling up 0.54% at 1.3819 (YTD: +1.1%)
Canadian dollar up 0.15% at 1.2544 (YTD: +1.5%)
Australian dollar up 0.23% at 0.7381 (YTD: -4.1%)
NZ dollar up 0.37% at 0.6997 (YTD: -2.6%)

Belgium, All Sectors, Overall for Jul 2021 (NBB, Belgium) at 10.10
Germany, Climate Germany (Incl.Services), Volume Index for Jul 2021 (Ifo, Univ. of Munich) at 100.80, below consensus estimate of 102.10
Germany, Ifo Business Climate Germany Expectation (Incl.Services), Volume Index for Jul 2021 (Ifo, Univ. of Munich) at 101.20, below consensus estimate of 103.30
Germany, Ifo Business Climate Germany Situation (Incl. services), Volume Index for Jul 2021 (Ifo, Univ. of Munich) at 100.40, below consensus estimate of 101.60
Ghana, Policy Rates, Monetary Policy Rate, Methodology Break August 2015 for Jul 2021 (Bank of Ghana) at 13.50 %, in line with consensus estimate
Japan, PMI, Manufacturing Sector, Jibun Bank Mfg PMI, Flash for Jul 2021 (Markit Economics) at 52.20
Kazakhstan, Policy Rates, Base Repo Rate for Jul 2021 (NBK, Kazakhstan) at 9.25 %
Singapore, Production, Change P/P for Jun 2021 (Statistics Singapore) at -3.00 %, below consensus estimate of 0.30 %
Singapore, Production, Change Y/Y for Jun 2021 (Statistics Singapore) at 27.50 %, above consensus estimate of 26.80 %
South Korea, GDP, Total-adv, Change P/P for Q2 2021 (The Bank of Korea) at 0.70 %, in line with consensus estimate
South Korea, GDP, Total-adv, Change Y/Y for Q2 2021 (The Bank of Korea) at 5.90 %, below consensus estimate of 6.00 %
United States, New Home Sales for Jun 2021 (U.S. Census Bureau) at 0.68 Mln, below consensus estimate of 0.80 Mln

Deutsche Bank USD Currency Volatility Index currently at 6.00, down -0.02 (YTD: -1.17)
Euro 1-Month At-The-Money Implied Volatility currently at 5.14, up 0.2 (YTD: -1.5)
Japanese Yen 1M ATM IV currently at 5.34, up 0.2 (YTD: -0.8)
Offshore Yuan 1M ATM IV currently at 3.76, up 0.1 (YTD: -2.2)

Oman (rated BB-): up 6.4 basis points to 238 bp (1Y range: 223-466bp)
Government of Chile (rated A-): up 0.9 basis points to 64 bp (1Y range: 43-75bp)
Colombia (rated BB+): up 1.6 basis points to 147 bp (1Y range: 83-164bp)
Panama (rated BBB-): up 0.7 basis points to 68 bp (1Y range: 44-95bp)
Bahrain (rated B+): up 2.1 basis points to 239 bp (1Y range: 159-330bp)
Vietnam (rated BB): up 0.8 basis points to 109 bp (1Y range: 90-159bp)
South Africa (rated BB-): up 1.1 basis points to 205 bp (1Y range: 178-328bp)
Ecuador (rated WD): down 1.0 basis points to 166 bp (1Y range: 157-181bp)
Argentina (rated CCC): down 16.7 basis points to 1,948 bp (1Y range: 1,049-1,968bp)
Egypt (rated B+): down 7.2 basis points to 339 bp (1Y range: 283-424bp)

CDX EM Sovereign Credit Spread | Sources: phipost.com, Refinitiv data

Seychelles rupee up 1.9% (YTD: +44.2%)
Vanuatu Vatu up 1.0% (YTD: -2.5%)
Mauritius Rupee up 0.9% (YTD: -7.2%)
Pacific Franc up 0.6% (YTD: -3.6%)
Colombian Peso down 0.6% (YTD: -12.4%)
Afghani down 0.8% (YTD: -3.8%)
Ghanaian Cedi down 1.2% (YTD: -1.5%)
Samoa Tala down 1.2% (YTD: -1.8%)
CFA Franc BEAC down 3.2% (YTD: -3.8%)
Venezuela Bolivar down 3.8% (YTD: -72.2%)