FX
US Dollar Rises Against Major Currencies On Positive Real Rates Differentials
Technical analysts see the US dollar extending recent gains, with a double bottom in the charts indicating possible further strength
Published ET
US Dollar Index & Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index | Sources: ϕpost, Refinitiv data
QUICK SUMMARY
- The US Dollar Index is up 0.21% at 92.97 (YTD: +3.32%)
- Euro down 0.20% at 1.1736 (YTD: -3.9%)
- Yen down 0.10% at 110.38 (YTD: -6.4%)
- Onshore Yuan down 0.04% at 6.4857 (YTD: +0.6%)
- Swiss franc down 0.67% at 0.9202 (YTD: -3.9%)
- Sterling down 0.17% at 1.3847 (YTD: +1.3%)
- Canadian dollar down 0.15% at 1.2575 (YTD: +1.3%)
- Australian dollar down 0.30% at 0.7331 (YTD: -4.7%)
- NZ dollar down 0.23% at 0.6992 (YTD: -2.7%)
MACRO DATA RELEASES
- China (Mainland), CPI, Average, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (NBS, China) at 1.00 %, above consensus estimate of 0.80 %
- China (Mainland), CPI, Change P/P for Jul 2021 (NBS, China) at 0.30 %, above consensus estimate of 0.20 %
- China (Mainland), Producer Prices, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (NBS, China) at 9.00 %, above consensus estimate of 8.80 %
- Czech Republic, Unemployment, Rate for Jul 2021 (MPSV, Czech Republic) at 3.70 %, below consensus estimate of 3.80 %
- Euro Zone Investors sentiment for Aug 2021 (Sentix) at 22.20, below consensus estimate of 29.00
- Germany, Exports, Change P/P for Jun 2021 (Deutsche Bundesbank) at 1.30 %, above consensus estimate of 0.40 %
- Germany, Imports, Change P/P for Jun 2021 (Deutsche Bundesbank) at 0.60 %, above consensus estimate of 0.50 %
- Germany, Trade Balance for Jun 2021 (Deutsche Bundesbank) at 13.60 Bln EUR, above consensus estimate of 13.40 Bln EUR
- Greece, CPI, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (ELSTAT, Greece) at 1.40 %
- Greece, HICP, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (ELSTAT, Greece) at -1.30 %
- Ireland, Unemployment, Rate, ILO for Jul 2021 (CSO, Ireland) at 6.50 %
- Japan, Current Account, Balance, Current Prices for Jun 2021 (BOJ/MOF Japan) at 905.10 Bln JPY, above consensus estimate of 779.80 Bln JPY
- Latvia, CPI, Change P/P for Jul 2021 (Statistics, Latvia) at 0.40 %
- Latvia, CPI, Change Y/Y for Jul 2021 (Statistics, Latvia) at 2.80 %
- Lithuania, CPI, Change P/P for Jul 2021 (Statistics Lithuania) at 0.70 %
- Lithuania, CPI, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (Statistics Lithuania) at 4.70 %
- Malaysia, Production, Total industry, Change Y/Y for Jun 2021 (Statistics, Malaysia) at 1.40 %, above consensus estimate of -0.30 %
- Mexico, CPI, Change P/P, Price Index for Jul 2021 (INEGI, Mexico) at 0.59 %, above consensus estimate of 0.55 %
- Mexico, CPI, Change Y/Y, Price Index for Jul 2021 (INEGI, Mexico) at 5.81 %, above consensus estimate of 5.77 %
- Mexico, CPI, Core CPI, Change P/P, Price Index for Jul 2021 (INEGI, Mexico) at 0.48 %, in line with consensus estimate
- New Zealand, Electronic card transactions, Retail industry, Change P/P for Jul 2021 (Statistics, NZ) at 0.60 %
- New Zealand, Electronic card transactions, Retail industry, Change Y/Y for Jul 2021 (Statistics, NZ) at 4.70 %
- Norway, Production, Manufacturing, Change P/P for Jun 2021 (Statistics Norway) at 0.70 %
- Slovakia, Trade Balance, Total, FOB, Current Prices for Jun 2021 (Stat Office of SR) at 296.70 Mln EUR, above consensus estimate of 178.30 Mln EUR
- Switzerland, Unemployment, Rate for Jul 2021 (SECO, Switzerland) at 3.00 %, in line with consensus estimate
- Taiwan, Exports, Change Y/Y for Jul 2021 (MoF, Taiwan) at 34.70 %, above consensus estimate of 29.50 %
- Taiwan, Imports, Change Y/Y for Jul 2021 (MoF, Taiwan) at 41.00 %, above consensus estimate of 35.00 %
- Taiwan, Trade Balance, Current Prices for Jul 2021 (MoF, Taiwan) at 5.90 Bln USD, above consensus estimate of 5.18 Bln USD
- United States, Labour Market n.i.e, JOLTS Job Openings for Jun 2021 (BLS, U.S Dep. Of Lab) at 10.07 Mln, above consensus estimate of 9.28 Mln
GLOBAL 5-YEAR NOMINAL INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS
- US-GERMANY: +2.1 bp at 152.5 bp (YTD change: +41.5 bp)
- US-JAPAN: +2.4 bp at 92.6 bp (YTD change: +44.4 bp)
- US-CHINA: -4.2 bp at -190.2 bp (YTD change: +67.0 bp)
GLOBAL 10-YEAR REAL INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS
- US-GERMANY: +2.3 bp at 79.3 bp (YTD change: +33.2bp)
- US-JAPAN: +4.3 bp at -87.1 bp (YTD change: +14.4bp)
- JAPAN-GERMANY: -3.5 bp at 164.1 bp (YTD change: +16.5bp)
VOLATILITIES TODAY
- Deutsche Bank USD Currency Volatility Index currently at 5.98, up 0.06 (YTD: -1.19)
- Euro 1-Month At-The-Money Implied Volatility currently at 5.28, up 0.3 (YTD: -1.4)
- Japanese Yen 1M ATM IV unchanged at 5.38 (YTD: -0.7)
- Offshore Yuan 1M ATM IV currently at 4.13, up 0.1 (YTD: -1.9)
NOTABLE MOVES IN SOVEREIGN CDS TODAY
- Turkey (rated BB-): up 11.5 basis points to 396 bp (1Y range: 282-570bp)
- South Africa (rated BB-): up 5.0 basis points to 205 bp (1Y range: 178-328bp)
- Brazil (rated BB-): up 4.0 basis points to 184 bp (1Y range: 141-252bp)
- Russia (rated BBB): up 1.1 basis points to 86 bp (1Y range: 72-129bp)
- Panama (rated BBB-): up 0.9 basis points to 73 bp (1Y range: 44-95bp)
- Colombia (rated BB+): up 1.6 basis points to 145 bp (1Y range: 83-164bp)
- Argentina (rated CCC): up 20.7 basis points to 1,962 bp (1Y range: 1,049-1,968bp)
- Saudi Arabia (rated A): up 0.6 basis points to 55 bp (1Y range: 52-101bp)
- Egypt (rated B+): up 3.1 basis points to 334 bp (1Y range: 283-422bp)
- Indonesia (rated BBB): down 0.9 basis points to 78 bp (1Y range: 66-118bp)
LARGEST FX MOVES TODAY
- Haiti Gourde up 2.0% (YTD: -24.6%)
- Mauritius Rupee up 1.3% (YTD: -6.8%)
- Lesotho Loti down 1.0% (YTD: -0.6%)
- Botswana Pula down 1.0% (YTD: -3.5%)
- Swazi Lilangeni down 1.0% (YTD: -0.6%)
- Namibian Dollar down 1.4% (YTD: -1.0%)
- South Africa Rand down 1.4% (YTD: -0.7%)
- Fiji Dollar down 1.5% (YTD: -2.5%)
- Afghani down 1.6% (YTD: -4.9%)