FX

Rates Still Driving Currency Flows

Rates spreads tightening are driving the USD very modestly down

Published ET

Source: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv Data

Source: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv Data


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NOTABLE MACRO HEADLINES  

  • Japan core machinery orders for February (seasonally adjusted M/M) were weak: Actual -8.5% vs. Consensus 1.0%
  • Seasonally adjusted Eurozone Industrial Production for February 2021 (M/M change) was in line with expectations: Actual-1.0%
    vs. Consensus-1.1% (prior 0.80%)
  • Working day adjusted Eurozone Industrial Production for February 2021 (Y/Y change) was surprisingly weak: Actual -1.6% vs. Consensus 0.10% (prior 0.10%)
  • The US Dollar Index is almost unchanged (down -0.1% at 91.8)

DAILY PERFORMANCES OF MAJOR CURRENCIES ALIGN WITH CHANGES IN RATES SPREADS

  • Euro up 0.3% at 1.1946, with the 5-year German - US interest rates spread 3.8 bp tighter (see charts below)
  • Yen up 0.3% at 109.05; 5Y Japan - US rates spread 4.2 bp tighter
  • Offshore Yuan up 0.0% at 6.5429; 5Y Chinese - US rates spread -0.3 bp tighter
  • Swiss franc up 0.2% at 0.9208
  • Sterling up 0.1% at 1.3748
  • Canadian dollar up 0.2% at 1.2531
  • Australian dollar up 0.2% at 0.7638
  • NZ dollar up 0.3% at 0.7051

Source: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv DataSource: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv DataSource: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv DataSource: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv Data

VOLATILITIES LOW, NOTHING MUCH TO SEE

Source: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv DataSource: ϕpost analysis, Refinitiv Data

NOTABLE EXOTIC MOVERS TODAY

  • Seychelles Rupee up 12.7% (YTD: 34.4%)
  • Mozambique Metical up 2.2% (YTD: 32.5%)
  • Samoa Tala up 1.2% (YTD: 0.5%) Burundi Franc up 1.1% (YTD: 0.0%)
  • Turkish Lira up 0.8% (YTD: -7.7%)
  • Kazakhstan Tenge up 0.7% (YTD: -2.2%)
  • Moldovan Leu down 0.9% (YTD: -5.1%)
  • Tunisian Dinar down 1.0% (YTD: -3.0%)
  • Bosnian Mark down 1.2% (YTD: -4.2%)